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   | Domenica 19 Dicembre 2021 - 02:25
tony lombardi fantasy football picks:
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п»їTom Brady fires ruthless Twitter comeback after Tony Dungy's snub but gets one key fact wrong.
This was almost a perfect comeback.
Tom Brady had a bit of fun on Twitter at former Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy's expense this week, but his barb was not as perfect as it could have been. On the most recent episode of "Club Shay Shay," which is a Fox Sports podcast, Shannon Sharpe was breaking down Dungy's list of toughest quarterbacks he had ever coached against. While he and Brady had several intense battles, the six-time Super Bowl Champion was ranked all the way down at No. 6 on Dungy's list.
"Who I put ahead of Tom Brady: Aaron Rodgers, John Elway, Steve Young, guys who could move," Dungy explained to Sharpe. "Not to say Tom wasn't great, but that extra dimension meant something to me."
Brady then responded to the video -- not with any words -- but with a picture:
That is certainly a great burn, but Brady forgot one thing. Dungy was not the head coach of the Colts when Brady's New England Patriots took down Indy in the 2014 AFC Championship game. It was actually Chuck Pagano who was on the receiving end of the 45-7 blowout loss. Dungy, who won Super Bowl XLI with the Colts, had actually retired after the 2008 season.
Even so, Brady got his point across. He's the type of player who would never revel in just making a conference championship game. It's always Super Bowl or bust for him -- which is why he has more rings than any other player in NFL history.
Super Bowl 2021: Here's how head coaches have fared in the big game for the first time like Bruce Arians.
Bruce Arians will have to buck recent history to get Tampa Bay over the top.
Legacy is a big overlying theme hovering above Super Bowl LV. For the most part, that topic has been reserved for the quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. If Brady wins, he'd extend his NFL record to seven Super Bowl titles and, on the flip side, Mahomes would go back-to-back and be well on his way to chasing down TB12 if he comes out on top. While quarterback fodder is always a sexy topic as the Lombardi Trophy is being dusted off, this game also has a lot on the line from a legacy standpoint for Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians.
The 68-year-old is reaching the Super Bowl for the first time in his head coaching career and is looking to put a significant stamp on his rГ©sumГ©. Arians does have two Super Bowl rings courtesy of his days as an assistant with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but a title with him serving as the head coach could put the two-time NFL Coach of the Year firmly in the Pro Football Hall of Fame discussion.
As we await Arians' bid at that first title as a head coach, we're going to take a look at whether or not history is on his side.
Super Bowl LV is almost here, and you can watch it for free on the CBS Sports App.
In the previous 54 Super Bowls, there have been 57 head coaches reaching the big game for the first time in their careers. Combined, those coaches are just below .500, owning a 27-30 record. However, I was a bit skeptical when I was crunching those numbers as it related to how Arians may fare in this game. After all, the coaches taking part in Super Bowl I (Vince Lombardi and Hank Stram) were both in it for the first time, so it's sort of hard to tell by that measure if experience in this setting matters.
That said, that near-.500 mark has held true even in this more modern era. Since the 2000 season, coaches reaching the Super Bowl for the first time are 12-13. Arians' counterpart in Andy Reid falls into the baker's dozen of coaches that were on the losing end of their first trip to the Super Bowl, falling to Tom Brady's Patriots during Super Bowl XXXIX while he was leading the Philadelphia Eagles.
History of first-time Super Bowl coaches.
Vince Lombardi, Packers (W), Hank Stram, Chiefs (L)
Tony lombardi fantasy football picks.
Playoff Record: 3-0-1.
Overall: 118-134-8 (46.8%)
Score Predictor Picks.
Playoff Record: 2-1-1.
Overall: 143-109-8 (56.8%)
(*The Score Predictor is a tool I created that takes over a decade’s worth of score and spread data to predict the final score of each game. It places higher weights on more recent games as well as games against the opponent that week. Ultimately, it outputs a final home team and away team score that is used to make a pick against the spread.)
Wild Card Whiffs.
— Just one that could be considered a whiff: Buffalo. The Bills Mafia has to be sick after a complete choke job in Houston. After being up 16 points and cruising, they imploded and allowed DeShaun Watson to work his magic late.
An undefeated Wild Card weekend is all you can ask for. Had the Bills not done Bills things, it would have been a perfect 4-0 week. They didn’t unfortunately, but I’ll take the push.
Here’s how the numbers break down and the ATS rankings of the remaining teams after the Wild Card Round:
As always, most importantly:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Here are my Divisional picks…
Saturday – 1/11/20.
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7, o/u 45.0)
This week’s spreads are tough, in my opinion, starting with this game. With the way the Vikings played last week in their win in New Orleans, they have all the confidence in the world that they can go into the Bay Area and come out with a win against the NFC’s top team. That confidence can be directly attributed to their quarterback, Kirk Cousins. He may have had his “moment” last week as he walked into the locker room after their win and shouted his catchphrase, “You like that!” Those are the types of things that endear a quarterback to his team and allow him to be a leader. Let’s see this week if he takes that next step.
San Francisco could potentially be getting back two key pieces of their defense in Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander. Those two would be huge for this team, which struggled defensively over the last four weeks of the season, giving up 31.8 points per game. With or without their return, I do think the 49ers win this game, but the Vikings will keep it close enough to cover as San Francisco wins by a field goal to advance to the NFC Championship.
San Francisco is 3-5 ATS at home this season. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after consecutive ATS wins.
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, o/u 46.5)
I don’t think you can understate the importance of the Ravens facing a team that hasn’t faced Lamar Jackson yet this season. Every team has said that they didn’t understand how fast he truly was until they faced him, and I don’t see that being any different this week.
In my mind, the ONLY way the Ravens lose this game is if Ryan Tannehill has a Playoff Joe Flacco moment and goes off on the Ravens (somehow). I think Derrick Henry will get his yards (over 100), but unless Tannehill produces through the air to the tune of 250-300 yards, I don’t think the Titans have much of a chance. The Ravens’ offense is too high powered and will be able to score points against a Titans’ defense that ranked 12 th against the run during the regular season.
The other thing to watch out for in this game is mother nature. She has proven to be able to slow Jackson down as much as any defense has so keep an eye on the weather for Saturday night. If the weather is supposed to be nasty, take the under.
(Ed note: A few days ago, the forecast was for rain. Currently, it says 20% chance. The only certainty is that it will change again!)
If you take the two teams in this game and combine them with the forecast, this spread seems just about right to me which makes it hard to go one way or another. Both teams like to ground and pound so possessions may be at a premium. I have the Ravens winning by 10 so I’ll lean that way, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they just miss covering. Either way, I think we’ll have an AFC Championship in Baltimore next week.
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
My Pick: Baltimore -9.5.
Sunday – 1/12/20.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, o/u 51.0)
You could have given me 13 points and I still probably would have taken the Chiefs here. They’re at home and looking to avenge their playoff failure last year. I think they take it out on the Texans big time this week.
The one thing that gives Houston a little bit of hope is that Will Fuller is expected to return this week. That gives their offense another weapon outside of DeAndre Hopkins to threaten a Kansas City defense that has played much better after their early season struggles.
At the end of the day, Kansas City’s offensive speed will just be too much for the Texans to handle and they’ll travel to face the Ravens in Baltimore next week for the matchup we’ve all been waiting for…
Houston is 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS win. The Chiefs are 6-0 straight up and ATS in their last six games.
My Pick: Kansas City -9.5.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers (-4, o/u 46.5)
Although this game has the least amount of firepower this week, this one may be the most interesting to me outside of the Ravens game. Seattle is banged up, and Green Bay has looked like the most fraudulent 13-3 team I’ve ever seen, but your record is who you are right? There are so many questions around this game that it has me intrigued.
I at first had Green Bay here, but after looking through the numbers, I think Beast Mode can have a day against this Packers defense. The Seahawks should be able to run the ball effectively against Green Bay, which will open up the passing game for Russell Wilson to cover the four points, if not win outright.
Seattle is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Green Bay is 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS loss.
Score Predictor: Seattle 18.5 – Green Bay 29.5 (Green Bay -4)
Of the four games this weekend, only the Kansas City game stands out to me as one I would throw money at. The other three spreads seem to be just about right which means I’ll stay away. If you’re into betting the over/unders, I do like the Under in the Ravens game (assuming it rains), and the Over in the Kansas City game.
Tony lombardi fantasy football picks.
I love it when a plan comes together. Most every game I had exposure to followed a game script I anticipated and that made for a productive day. The Browns jumped on the Dolphins through the air as Baker Mayfield had his best fantasy performance of the season with 327 yards and 3 TD (27.58 points), one of them going to Odell Beckham Jr. who had 84 yards on 6 receptions (20.40 points).
We knew going in that Leonard Fournette hadn’t scored nearly enough touchdowns considering his massive workload. He finally hit with 2 rushing TD and caught 9 passes amid a blowout (36.90 points). The catalyst for that blowout? Derrick Henry trampled the Jags again with 159 yards rushing and 2 TD (32.50 points)
Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki combined for a solid 26.90 points in that game stack with Baker and OBJ and Calvin Ridley kept it rolling with 85 yards and a TD on 6 catches (22 points).
My bet against the Bills ultimately cost this lineup the chance to truly print money. I loved the way the Broncos D matched up with Bills offense and I figured they’d come in and run the ball well and force turnovers. Phillip Lindsay finished with 68 total yards. The Broncos defense didn’t play poorly but didn’t have enough splash plays to make a difference (4 points). This is a prime example of how difficult it can be to nail a truly killer tournament lineup but we’re moving dangerously close. On to week 13.
QB Jared Goff @ Arizona.
Coming off a rough November I’m going to take a chance on Goff starting off December well in a sweet matchup. The Cardinals are one of only two teams that give up over 300 passing yards per game to QBs and they’ve allowed the most passing TD in the NFL with 29. The Rams’ pass protection is always a concern but the Cardinals pass rush is not at the level where I’m shying away (19th in adjusted sack rate per football outsiders). Goff should be low-owned, comes in at a reasonable price and does have some upside in what I think could be a shootout.
DraftKings salary: 6,000.
RB Saquon Barkley vs. Green Bay.
Barkley is clearly not himself. He hasn’t been as explosive and elusive as we’re used to seeing him but he’s still playing virtually every snap and handling the lion’s share of the work for the G-Men. This week he faces a Packers team that gives up 5 yards per carry and allows the 10th most targets per game to RBs. Even in a slate missing some of the top RBs I expect Barkley to go lower-owned based on his health and recent box scores, creating an opportunity for us to reap the benefits in a great spot.
DraftKings salary: 7,400.
RB Le’Veon Bell @ Cincinnati.
His 17 touches last week were his low water mark over the past month. He fell victim to 3 short-yardage TD by teammates last week in a blowout win versus the Raiders but the Jets have a chance to keep the points rolling versus Cincy. The Bengals give up 4.7 yards per carry to RBs and have allowed the 3rd most rushing TDs in the league at 13. Bell has a secure touch share and a great matchup this week… just need some TD luck.
DraftKings salary: 7,200.
WR Davante Adams @ New York (Giants)
Adams has 33 targets in the 3 games since his return to the lineup…the next closest player in that span for the Packers has 15 (Cap tip to Ian Hartitz). Only the Bucs have given up more points per game to the wide receiver position than the Giants. Especially at this price, Adams is one of the no brainer plays of the week.
DraftKings salary: 7,000.
WR DJ Chark vs. Tampa Bay.
See above for the matchup. Chark disappointed a bit last week but he has a 22% target share on the season and he just had a 15-target game in Nick Foles’ first game back in Week 11. In another game with shootout potential, Chark is one of my favorite plays this week.
DraftKings salary: 6,600.
WR Brandin Cooks @Arizona.
DraftKings salary: 5,200.
TE Jack Doyle vs. Tennessee.
I’ve tried to step outside of the box with these lineups but I’m 100% following the crowd here. With Eric Ebron on IR, TY Hilton ruled out for the game and the Titans ranking 25th versus tight ends in per-game scoring, you’d be a fool not to have exposure to Doyle at this price.
DraftKings salary: 3,300.
Flex Darrel Williams vs. Oakland.
It’s trending towards Damien Williams missing this week with a rib injury and that places Darrel Williams squarely in play. LeSean McCoy is tentatively expected to play but trust in him has seemed to wane from a pass protection and ball security standpoint. I’m not expecting Williams to be a full-on feature back, he may even be out-touched but double-digit touches in this offense are incredibly valuable so I’m using this as a vehicle to get exposure to the highest totaled game of the slate at 51 points.
DraftKings salary: 4,400.
Defense Ravens vs. San Francisco.
The Ravens defense has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the last 5 games. Three of those games were quarterbacked by Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Tom Brady.
The Niners have been very good on offense. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 20 TD and averages 8.1 yards per attempt. He also has 10 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles on the season.
The Ravens are expected to get Michael Pierce back on the defensive line which will make a huge difference versus the run. If they can force this game into Jimmy G’s hands, they have an excellent shot at making it 6 games in a row with double-digit fantasy points.
Late for Work 1/27: Ravens Land Wide Receiver in Mel Kiper's First Mock Draft.
Mel Kiper Mocks First-Round Receiver to Ravens.
If the Ravens are going to add more talent at wide receiver, ESPN's Mel Kiper believes it will be through the draft.
In his first mock draft of the offseason, Kiper has the Ravens selecting LSU wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. with the 27th-overall pick.
" The Ravens' passing attack did not take a step forward in Lamar Jackson's second full season as the starting quarterback," Kiper wrote. "Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown was the only receiver who caught at least 35 passes, and even he was too inconsistent. Baltimore had the fewest passing attempts, passing yards and passing first downs in the league. Adding another top-tier wideout is how it can really take the offense to the next level. Marshall was coming on as LSU's top wideout this season, and he had 10 touchdowns in seven games before he opted out of the season in November. He has some quickness in a 6-3 frame."
After star LSU receiver Ja'Marr Chase opted out of the 2020 college football season, Marshall led the Tigers in receptions (48) and touchdowns (10), and had 731 receiving yards. Marshall put up very similar stats during his sophomore season. Kiper ranked Marshall as the fourth-best receiver on his big board in November.Р’.
Terrace Marshall Jr. career at LSU:
"With neither Chase nor [Justin]Р’ Jefferson in the mix in 2020, it was Marshall's chance to shine and he took full advantage," The Draft Network's Joe Marino wrote. ". Marshall is a versatile receiver that has proven himself both from the slot and out wide while attacking all levels of the field with consistency. He offers terrific size, physicality, hands, ball skills, run after catch ability, route-running skills, and overall technical-refinement. Marshall did miss three games in 2019 with a foot injury, had some minor drop issues creep up in 2020, and has some inconsistent moments as a blocker, but there isn't much in the way of notable concerns as he enters the next level. Marshall has the potential to become a productive piece of an NFL offense that can produce in a variety of ways."
Whether or not the Ravens target one of the premier free-agent receivers, continuing to build the position through the draft is important.
The Ravens have reiterated that they're not going to shy away from being a run-first offense, but that doesn't mean they're disregarding the receiving core.
Since Eric DeCosta took over as general manager, the Ravens have taken more swings at wide receivers early in the draft. They drafted Brown in the first round, along with Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay in the third round.
"Their injection of young talent at the position will likely continue this year even if it is with just one rookie and not two," Baltimore Beatdown's Joshua Reed wrote. "With significant draft capital already pumped into their pass-catching corps and more expected on the horizon, the team might be reluctant to pay the big bucks to a veteran that will take snaps away and potentially stunt the development of their younger players."
How a Coaching Opportunity for David Culley Could Benefit the Ravens.
Ravens Assistant Head Coach David Culley reportedly went to Houston yesterday for a second interview with the Texans for their head coaching vacancy.
Not only could it be an opportunity for Culley to become a head coach, but it could also benefit the Ravens in draft compensation.
The #Texans are setting up second interviews with #Bills DC Leslie Frazier and #Ravens AHC David Culley for their head coaching job, per sources. Both now out of the playoffs and eligible to meet in person. — Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 25, 2021.
If #Ravens Assistant Head Coach/Pass Coordinator/Wide Receivers is hired by the #Texans (or any team for that matter), the Ravens would receive two 3rd-round comp picks, one in each of the next two drafts.
In November, NFL owners approved a proposal that would reward teams with a third-round compensatory pick for two consecutive years for developing minority coaches and front office executives who go on to become head coaches or general managers elsewhere.
Culley has spent two seasons with the Ravens as the assistant head coach/pass coordinator/wide receivers coach. He is one of two candidates (Buffalo Bills Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier) who reportedly received a second interview. The Texans are also expected to pursue Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy.
The appeal of the job centers around star quarterback Deshaun Watson, who Culley reportedly has a good connection with. Culley coached Watson as part of the Ravens' coaching staff in the Pro Bowl last season.
David Culley, traveling to Houston on Tuesday for his second job interview with Texans, coached Deshaun Watson in the Pro Bowl last year as part of Ravens' coaching staff. Watson and Culley built a really good connection that week, according to sources — Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) January 25, 2021.
DeCosta told reporters on Monday that the Ravens would like to add more picks leading up to the draft, and this could be a way it happens.
The Ravens are projected to receive two compensatory picks, a fifth-round pick for the loss of Michael Pierce and seventh-round pick for the loss of Patrick Onwuasor. Seth Roberts' departure was canceled out by the addition of Derek Wolfe, and Josh Bynes was considered a "Non-Compensatory" free-agent loss, according to OverTheCap.Р’.
One Pundit Says the AFC Has Become a One-Team Conference.
Has the AFC become a one-team race? That's what NFL Network's Kyle Brandt said about the Kansas City Chiefs on "Good Morning Football."
"I learned this weekend that the AFC does not exist anymore," Brandt said. "The AFC is no more. It is now the 'MFC.' It is the Mahomes Football Conference. … Patrick Mahomes has now owned the entire NFL yet, but he owns the MFC. … It's his conference, [and] you have to do something about it."
There's no denying the Chiefs' success. They're headed to a second straight Super Bowl and have reached the AFC Championship game in three straight seasons with Mahomes.
Brandt said the torch has been passed from Tom Brady to Mahomes as the dominant force in the AFC, and that it's up to the other young quarterbacks in the conference, including Lamar Jackson, to change it.
Even during Brady's dominance with the New England Patriots, there were a number of teams that won Lombardi Trophies coming out of the AFC.
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