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п»ї2021 Daytona 500 odds, drivers, predictions: NASCAR picks from top-rated model that called Hamlin's win.
SportsLine simulated the 2021 Daytona 500 10,000 times and locked in surprising picks.
The 2021 Daytona 500 will take place on Sunday, Feb. 14 at the famed 2.5-mile oval of Daytona International Speedway, with the green flag dropping at 2:30 p.m. ET. It's the 63rd running of The Great American Race, and the 40-driver 2021 Daytona 500 starting grid will be eager to put what they learned during the coronavirus-altered 2020 season to the test. Denny Hamlin has won the last two Daytona 500 races and will try to become the first driver ever to three-peat.
Hamlin is the 8-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Daytona 500 odds from William Hill Sportsbook, but several past champions and superspeedway standouts are hot on his heels. In fact, there are 11 other drivers listed at 20-1 or shorter on the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona odds board, including Joey Logano (10-1), Kevin Harvick (12-1), and Martin Truex Jr. (18-1). Before you scour the 2021 Daytona 500 starting lineup and make your NASCAR at Daytona predictions for the Great American Race, be sure to see the latest 2021 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Top 2021 Daytona 500 predictions.
One surprise: the model is high on Alex Bowman, even though he's an 18-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021 from William Hill. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 27-year-old will move from the No. 88 car to the No. 48 car for Hendrick Motorsports, but that minor change shouldn't keep him from qualifying near the front during a condensed Daytona Speed Week.
Bowman qualified in the front row of the Daytona 500 the last three years, winning the pole in 2018 and starting on the outside row in 2019 and 2020. While he hasn't been able to parlay that into a top-10 finish yet, he did finish seventh last season in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 after starting eighth.
The track should be well-worn with the Clash, qualifying, Duels, Truck Series, ARCA and Xfinity all running in the five days prior. Starting in front could be a huge advantage come race day, making Bowman a live long shot for the 2021 Daytona 500.
And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, one of the Vegas favorites at 12-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Daytona 500 lineup. Harvick won a career-high nine races in 2020 and spent a large portion of the season at the top of the NASCAR Cup Series standings.
However, he faltered late, finishing outside the top 10 in four of his last six starts and failing to make the Championship Four cutoff. Harvick is a two-time winner at Daytona, but his track record at the iconic superspeedway has been poor. He has just one top 10 in his last nine starts at Daytona International Speedway and has finished 20th or worse in seven of those races.
How to make 2021 NASCAR at Daytona picks.
The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2021 Daytona 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 Daytona 500 odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Daytona 500 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win last season.
2021 Daytona 500 odds.
Denny Hamlin 8-1 Chase Elliott 10-1 Joey Logano 10-1 Brad Keselowski 10-1 Ryan Blaney 10-1 Kevin Harvick 12-1 Kyle Busch 15-1 William Byron 18-1 Aric Almirola 18-1 Martin Truex Jr. 18-1 Kyle Larson 18-1 Alex Bowman 18-1 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1 Austin Dillon 25-1 Bubba Wallace 25-1 Ross Chastain 30-1 Matt DiBenedetto 30-1 Cole Custer 40-1 Chase Briscoe 40-1 Tyler Reddick 40-1 Christopher Bell 40-1 Chris Buescher 50-1 Austin Cindric 50-1 Erik Jones 50-1 Michael McDowell 75-1 Ryan Newman 75-1 Jamie McMurray 100-1 Ryan Preece 100-1 Ty Dillon 100-1 Daniel Suarez 125-1 David Ragan 150-1 Noah Gragson 150-1 Anthony Alfredo 150-1 Corey Lajoie 150-1 Kaz Grala 250-1 BJ McLeod 750-1 Timmy Hill 750-1 Chad Finchum 750-1 Josh Bilicki 750-1 Cody Ware 1000-1 Quin Houff 1000-1.
2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, preview.
Our NASCAR expert breaks down the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, with the schedule set to kick off this month.
With one championship and 58 race victories on his job summary, Kevin Harvick is likely on his way to the NASCAR Hall of Fame.
A second championship would likely make him a first-ballot choice for the Hall’s voting committee. Getting that second championship looks extremely doable for the 45-year-old native of Bakersfield, California in 2021.
NASCAR Cup Series championship odds 2021.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship betting favorites.
Harvick is coming off a season which he dominated in terms of race victories – he had a series-leading nine in 36 races. He also gathered 20 top-five finishes.
During the regular season and then into the first rounds of the playoffs, Harvick appeared to be the favorite to win the championship. But a rare bad outing at Martinsville Speedway in Virginia in the penultimate round of the playoffs kept him out of the Championship 4.
Little has changed for Harvick for 2021. He will be back driving a Ford for powerhouse Stewart-Haas Racing, he will still have Rodney Childress as his crew chief and you can be sure he will still have plenty of swagger on race weekends.
About the only change for Harvick and the No. 4 car is that they will have a new teammate in young Chase Briscoe, who is taking the wheel of the No. 14 car that retired Clint Bowyer had been driving.
Perhaps no other driver was affected as adversely by the Covid 19 pandemic and the changes it forced upon NASCAR as Kyle Busch.
Busch, who won his second Cup championship in 2019 failed to win a race until the 34th race of the 2020 season. This for a guy who won 27 times between 2015 and 2019.
What happened? The Cup season went on a pandemic-forced hiatus after four races in 2020. When the series did return to the tracks, they did so with a pandemic protocol that shortened the weekends and eliminated practice sessions.
Busch is the type of driver who has used Friday and Saturday practices to improve his cars and get into a rhythm. On race days post hiatus, Busch and his team had trouble finding winning speed.
2021 will begin with many of the same protocols in place. It will also begin with Busch still in possession of what many around the sport think are the best racing skills in NASCAR.
Busch has parted ways with long-time crew chief Adam Stevens, who is replaced by Ben Beshore on the Joe Gibbs Racing team.
Young Chase Elliott was not only the surprise winner of the 2020 Cup Series championship, he was also the year’s top storyline.
Elliott, 25, is the son of NASCAR legend Bill Elliott, aka Million Dollar Bill. Chase has a ways to go to post the numbers his father had but with the championship coming in just fifth full season in the series, he’s on his way.
He won five races last year and had a career best 22 top-10 finishes.
He won the final two races of the season. Elliott, who has taken over the role as the sport’s biggest fan favorite in the wake of Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s retirement, has clearly found his footing.
Elliott has been especially impressive on road course where he won twice a year ago. With three additional races on the twisties scheduled for 2021, Elliott could be in for a big year.
Team Penske’s Keselowski won four races in 2020. Three of those came prior to the start of the 10-race playoffs. He also had 13 top-fives and nine of those came before the playoffs.
The Michigan native survived a very shaky four-race stretch in the playoffs where his best finish was 13th, came on to log sixth-place or better finishes in the final four race and come home second in championship points.
It was that kind of season for “Bad Brad”. He spent the first half of it wondering about his future as he was in the final year of his contract at the elite Penske team. However, one day after picking up a race win in New Hampshire in mid-summer he signed an extension.
Keselowski’s lone championship came in 2012 but he has finished in the top-eight six times since then.
Hamlin wears an unofficial title that has both positive and negative connotations connected with it – best active driver to have never won a Cup Series championship.
There is little reason to think that he could not break free of that image this coming season.
Hamlin has won 44 races. Three of those have been in the sport’s biggest event – the Daytona 500.
Thirteen of his victories have come during the last two seasons when he won six times in 2019 and seven in 2020. He has drove his way into the season-ending Championship 4 the last two seasons. He is the two-time defending champion of he Daytona 500.
So, at age 40, the native of Chesterfield, Va., is at the top of his game. His team owner, Joe Gibbs, must think so too as Hamlin was given a new multi-year contract on Feb. 1.
Truex had an off year in 2020 as he won just one race and failed to advance to the Championship 4.
Truex had won four, eight, four and seven races from 2016 to 2019. He was the 2017 Cup Series champion and finished as runner-up in 2018 and 2019.
What happened? Well, there was a new crew chief as James Small took over for Cole Pearn on the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing car. But a better answer might be that nothing really bad happened.
Truex remained one of the most consistent drivers in the series. He had 23 top-10 finishes, which was the third most in Cup. He had five second-place finishes and six third-place finishes on the year.
In the Round of 8, he was dealt a 20-point penalty for a pre-race inspection violation at Texas.
The final blow to his hopes for a berth in the Championship 4 came the following week at Martinsville when, while in contention for the win, he had to pit with a loose wheel 25 laps from the finish.
2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds: Harvick the Betting Favorite To Win Title.
Chris Keane/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Busch Beer Throwback Ford, celebrates with a burnout.
Just days ago Chase Elliott secured the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Championship with a win at Phoenix Raceway, and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook is already looking ahead to next season’s title chase.
Early odds expect a very competitive championship race, with seven drivers at 8-1 or shorter.
Kevin Harvick is the early favorite at 5-1, followed by Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Elliott and Brad Keselowski at 8-1.
Here’s the full list of 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds:
2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds.
2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Notes.
Interestingly, after capturing the 2020 NASCAR title and with the 2021 schedule featuring six road course races, which are Elliott’s specialty, the reigning champ is not the favorite.
Chase Briscoe, who led the NASCAR XFINITY Series with nine wins last season, will graduate to Stewart-Haas Racing’s No. 14 Ford, previously driven by the retiring Clint Bowyer, opened at 100-1.
It’s also important to note that Christopher Bell will be moving to Joe Gibbs Racing’s No. 20 Toyota, which should be an upgrade in equipment and performance. Bell is 50-1 to win the Cup Series title, with Erik Jones, who is moving from the No. 20 to Richard Petty Motorsports’ No. 43, is 200-1.
And speaking of Richard Petty Motorsports, the departing Bubba Wallace is 50-1 with the newly-formed 23XI Racing, co-owned by Michael Jordan and Hamlin.
2021 Daytona 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Early Bets for NASCAR’s Biggest Race.
Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images. Pictured: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., driver of the #47 Kroger Chevrolet, leads a pack of cars.
The new year is finally here, and while that means football season is coming to a close, it’s also a reminder that NASCAR’s season-opening race, the Daytona 500 (Feb. 14 at 2:30 p.m. ET), is right around the corner.
Daytona 500 odds are available at most sportsbooks, so it’s time to turn our attention toward motorsports and start building betting cards for NASCAR’s biggest race.
With this in mind, here are three drivers I’m locking in right now for the Daytona 500.
Daytona 500 Picks.
*Odds as of Jan. 8 at 10 a.m. ET.
In an event that can be very random, Hamlin has found a way to dominate the Great American Race in recent years.
The Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) driver has won back-to-back 500s and three of the last five.
That’s pretty good.
And it’s not just Daytona that fits Denny’s superspeedway eye as of late, evidenced by finishes of fourth and first at Talladega last year as well.
In fact, here were Hamlin’s finishes at the four superspeedway races last season: first, fourth, third and first, for an insane 2.3 average finish.
I’m typically in very little rush to bet Daytona 500 favorites this early, but I can’t find any reason to wait on Hamlin at 8-1 odds right now.
I just can’t quit you at superspeedways, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse is the ultimate checkers-or-wreckers driver, a characteristic that often results in wadded-up race cars.
Still, I’m not overly concerned about where he finishes because, as a bettor, if he ain’t first, he’s last.
Ricky’s two Cup Series victories came at Talladega at Daytona (both in 2017), and he’s shown the speed to win there throughout this career, including last season after switching from Roush Fenway Racing to JTG-Daugherty Racing.
Stenhouse won the pole and led the third-most laps in the 2020 Daytona 500, then followed it up with a runner-up at Talladega in June in which he crossed the finish line .007 seconds behind winner Ryan Blaney in a crazy finish.
At 20-1, this is a worthy price to add one of the series’ top superspeedway drivers, especially one who will not settle for anything less than a win.
Part of being a successful bettor is understanding your flaws, especially the ones that bleed profit throughout the season.
My New Year’s NASCAR betting resolution is to stop taking so many longshots at superspeedway races, especially the Daytona 500.
Sure, anything can happen in these races and that’s what can be seductive with longshot prices, but the deep sleepers rarely ever take the checkered flag.
As a result, I’ll be looking more toward props for my favorite sleepers — follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for my Daytona 500 props — while avoiding them (hopefully) to win outright.
With that said, I’m taking a shot, and a fairly big one, on Chris Buescher at 40-1 odds.
Here are the top 10 drivers (sorted by driver rating at the four superspeedway races last season) and corresponding 2021 Daytona 500 betting odds via BetMGM.
The list above includes the six drivers with the best odds to win the Daytona 500 and seven drivers at 16-1 or shorter. Kurt Busch, the 2017 winner is next at 20-1, leaving just Buescher (40-1) and Jones (66-1) as the outliers.
For those wondering, Jones, who was around 28-1 to win this race last year, switched from powerhouse team JGR to Richard Petty Motorsports in the offseason, explaining the significant drop in price.
That list alone illustrates why I’m willing to take a flier on Buescher, but looking at average finish makes this bet even more appetizing.
Hamlin and Blaney were the only current Cup Series regulars who finished with better average finishes than Buescher at superspeedways in 2020.
So, in Buescher we’re getting a driver …
In very fast Roush Fenway Racing superspeedway equipment. Who finished with the sixth-best driver rating at superspeedways in 2020. Who had the third-best average finish at superspeedways in 2020.
Additionally, savvy bettors can get Buescher at an even better price by shopping the market and locking him in right now at William Hill at the unbeatable price of 50-1.
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