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   | Domenica 18 Luglio 2021 - 15:03
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п»їSuper Bowl 55 odds and preview: 5 best bets.
Kansas City failed to cover the spread between Week 11 and Championship Weekend, perhaps getting a bit bored in the regular season as they waited for the action to get more important. There is also a sense of general Chiefs fatigue beginning to set in around the nation as pundits look to find a way to avoid stating the obvious fact that Kansas City has a potential dynasty on its hands.
That Week 12 matchup at Raymond James Stadium is also factoring into the spread logic here since the Chiefs won by three over the Buccaneers in Tampa, the exact circumstances of the Super Bowl. The thing most people forget is that the Chiefs were cruising in that game, jumping out to a 27-10 lead before Brady helped lead a late charge to make it a three-point game.
This is a value buy here with only a small line to lay for the NFL’s best quarterback and an elite football team. Lay the points with the Chiefs, who are the best bet of Super Bowl LV.
Super Bowl 2021: Vegas Betting Odds, Updated Moneyline for Chiefs vs. Bucs.
Featured Columnist January 29, 2021 Comments Comment Bubble Icon.
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have carried tremendous value on the moneyline in their past two games.
Brady and Co. will be the underdog for the third consecutive contest in Super Bowl 55 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Just like the matchups with the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers, Brady's counterpart will be a Super Bowl champion.
Patrick Mahomes enters Raymond James Stadium with a 6-1 postseason record. The only loss was to Brady and the New England Patriots two seasons ago.
Mahomes has won two regular-season showdowns with Brady, including one in Week 12 of this season, but to cash in on his team's favorite status, he has to outplay the six-time Super Bowl champion inside the Bucs' home stadium.
Super Bowl 55 Odds.
Spread: Kansas City (-3)
Over/Under: 56.5.
Tampa Bay is the better play on the moneyline since it is playing inside its home stadium, has Brady at quarterback and, most importantly, has underdog value.
The Buccaneers went 5-3 at Raymond James Stadium and scored over 25 points in each of their victories.
In the past three weeks, Tampa Bay has eclipsed the 30-point mark against the Washington Football Team, Saints and Packers.
If the Bucs score at a similar rate on February 7, they should be in a good position to cash underdog moneyline tickets.
However, a victory on home soil will not come easy against a team that went into Florida and controlled the first half of the Week 12 showdown.
Mahomes and Tyreek Hill were unstoppable in the opening 30 minutes of that clash, and Hill ended up with a career-high 269 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Kansas City's defense limited Tampa Bay to seven first-half points, and it was able to hold off a late surge from Brady and land a three-point victory.
Any string of defensive stops should quell the threat posed by the six-time Super Bowl champion.
In Tampa Bay's three home defeats, it scored fewer than 25 points each time. The Los Angeles Rams held it to 24 points, and the Saints did not allow a touchdown in Week 9.
By Kansas City's standard, the Week 12 contest was a low-scoring affair. The Chiefs went over the 30-point mark on five occasions on their travels.
Even if the Chiefs are held under that threshold by the Tampa Bay defense, they have proved that they can win games in which they score around 25 points.
Kansas City scored 22 points in its divisional-round victory over the Cleveland Browns, and it produced 23 points during Mahomes' first victory against Brady in 2019.
While the Chiefs have less value than the Buccaneers on the moneyline, they are still worth a money-line bet because they are at a much cheaper price than they were throughout the regular season, when they were favored by a touchdown or more on a regular basis.
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Super Bowl 55 Betting Odds: Chiefs And Buccaneers Popular Bets, Player Props And Sportsbook Insights.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 29: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass in the . [+] fourth quarter during their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 29, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Kickoff is closing in for Super Bowl 55 between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. At many sportsbooks, the Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite, and the over/under has dipped down to 56 points. But at select leading sportsbooks like FanDuel, the Chiefs are a 3-point favorite (-120) with a total of 55.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs are still taking the most Super Bowl spread bets and money. In fact, FanDuel Sportsbook reports that 67% of the spread bets and 80% of the money is on the Chiefs less than 72 hours before Sunday’s kickoff.
According to John Sheeran, FanDuel Sportsbook director of risk and trading, the betting activity and Super Bowl action is enormous.
“We’re expecting between three to four times the handle that we took last year,” Sheeran told 670 The Score radio in Chicago. “Regulated sports betting is bigger now in the U.S. There is massive growth in New Jersey, and we’ll do another 50% on top of what we did last year in sports betting (handle). We expect to see continued growth across all states.”
That includes in Illinois, where sports betting launced last summer. ”Illinois has been incredible,” Sheeran added about sports betting interest in the Prairie State.
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Super Bowl 55 Betting Data and Prop Bets.
When asked about the the most popular bets on the Super Bowl, Sheeran said.
“Normally we’ll see about 80% of the money between the three core markets - the spread, moneyline and total - in that order,” Sheeran said. Right now we’re seeing about 5-to-1, or nearly 85% of the spread money on the Chiefs. About 60% of the moneyline action is on the Buccaneers. The total is taking near 15% of the total money wagered, and about 60% bias towards the over.”
Despite that comment just two days ago with the total at 56.5, FanDuel has since dropped the over/under to 55.5 points.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (-105) is the favorite to win back-to-back Super Bowl MVP awards. He’ll have even more pressure on him this game with Kansas City’s two starting offensive tackles sidelined and out of the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay ranks No. 3 in pressure rate (27.9%) and generated the fourth-most sacks in the league this season (48). The Bucs also rank No. 5 in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA metric, and will have cornerback Jamel Dean back after he missed the Week 12 contest against Kansas City.
Super Bowl News and Betting Insights.
Another handicapper and analytics expert through my contacts recommends over 40.5 passing attempts for Patrick Mahomes. In the Chiefs 27-24 Week 12 win over the Buccaneers, Tampa Bay built leads of 17-0 and 27-10. Mahomes passed for season highs of attempts (49), completions (37) and yards (462). Tampa Bay has made a number of defensive adjustments since that contest including on coverage schemes after WR Tyreek Hill torched the Bucs on 13 catches for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns.
When asked about a prop bet of interest on 670 The Score radio, Sheeran deferred to a text from a friend who provided some reasoning with the offensive tackles out for the Chiefs. Despite some turf toe concerns for Mahomes, he may be on the move and running more with the Bucaneers defensive front pressure.
The recommendation was on QB Patrick Mahomes over 19.5 rushing yards, which is now up to 21.5 rushing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mahomes will be the focus whether he’s running or passing the Chiefs to another Super Bowl victory.
Super Bowl 55 Odds: Betting Guide For Kansas City Chiefs And Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 29: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass in the . [+] fourth quarter during their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 29, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Super Bowl LV is set and the Kansas City Chiefs opened a 3.5-point favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a total of 57.5 A number of leading sportsbooks quickly moved the line to Chiefs -3 (-120) Sunday night and dropped the total to 56.5 as initial bets were placed. The Big Game is Sunday, February 7 at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Super Bowl 55 will be played in Tampa, Florida at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
William Hill sportsbook operates in 160 locations across 14 states with Michigan taking its first legal sports bets this past week. From its birthplace in Nevada, William Hill now takes one in every four sports bets placed in the country. The largest volume of bets are in Nevada and New Jersey, and mobile sports betting apps are offered in nine U.S. jurisdictions.
Chiefs and Buccaneers Rematch.
The Chiefs and Buccaneers played in Week 12 and Kansas City won 27-24 after building a 27-10 lead into the fourth quarter. Some monster statistical performances included Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes passing for 462 yards and 3 touchdowns. All three scores went to WR Tyreek Hill, who had 13 receptions for 269 yards including over 200 receiving yards in the first quarter alone. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady passed for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns with two of them to WR Mike Evans.
Those players will be most popular again in the Super Bowl match-up with the hundreds of prop bets and player props available on the seasons biggest game and event.
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Including the playoffs this season, the Chiefs have averaged 417 yards per game, 6.3 yards per play and 29.1 points per game. The Buccaneers average 387 yards per game, 6.0 yards per play and 30.7 points per game. On defense, the Chiefs allowed 355 yards per game, 5.6 yards per play 22.3 points per game. The Buccaneers allow 328 yards per game, 5.1 yards per play and 22.1 points per game.
Super Bowl History.
Beyond the Bets.
The interest and impact of the Super Bowl is huge. Last year, the Super Bowl’s total average viewership in the U.S. was more than 100 million, and the game was televised live in more than 180 countries. The big money behind the big game included 30-second commercials that cost $5.6 million apiece. A captive audience bolstered by social media could be greater this year with sports betting driving more interest and now legal in 20 states.
In the 2019 Super Bowl, there was $145.9 million bet on the game at Nevada sportsbooks.
In Kansas City’s 2020 Super Bowl win, Nevada sportsbooks won $18.77 million from bettors with an overall handle of $154.68 million - the second highest win and handle in the last 30 years. The state’s Gaming Control Board reports that Nevada sportsbooks have shown a profit in 28 of the 30 Super Bowls since it began releasing betting results in 1991.
New Jersey has lost more than $4 million in each of its first two years booking the Super Bowl with sportsbook handle increasing from 34.9 million to 54.3 million last year.
Pennsylvania handled $30.7 million in Super Bowl bets in its first year and lost more than $3.2 million. Promotional wagers, free bets, odds boosts and marketing to try and attract new customers and bettors is part of the reason for early Super Bowl losses in those states.
With more states online along with added interest and coverage of sports betting, expect more bettors to be in the game and record betting for Super Bowl 55 between the Buccaneers and Chiefs.
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