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п»ї4 Proven Betting Systems That Work in 2021.
I remember when I first started searching for a proven betting system googling the term “ betting systems .”
There was all sorts of progressive staking systems , martingale systems, stop at a winner systems, progressive laying systems. The fact was though that none of these betting systems held up to any long term analysis and would normally blow your bank if you followed them for long enough.
But after researching a bit longer I found a few betting systems that did actually work.
Here are four betting systems that I have used over the years.
Which continue to be profitable in the year 2021.
Proven Betting System 1 – Arbitrage Betting.
Table of Contents.
Sports Arbitrage betting is something that I still use on the occasion as part of my portfolio . Arbitrage betting involves covering every outcome of an event. In order to guarantee a profit no matter the outcome.
Here is an example of a number of arbitrage bets found using the software rebelbetting.
For example if we take one of the arbitrage bets above.
There is a 3.7% arbitrage bet between The New Saints and Bala in the Welsh division.
In the draw no bet market The New Saints could be backed at 1.53 with Marathonbet and Bala could be backed at 3.2 with William Hill.
For every ВЈ100 risked across both outcomes a profit of ВЈ3.7 could be guaranteed.
With arbitrage betting you can make several of these bets every day and gradually build up your bankroll with almost zero risk.
It is a system that once you understand can be used again and again.
Negatives of arbitrage betting?
The only issue with arbitrage betting is that it has a limited life cycle. Bookmakers will eventually limit arbitrage bettors accounts once they see that they are not going to be profitable customers.
Arbitrage betting is a great way to build up a betting or trading bankroll. Before you move on to betting or trading with exchanges and Asian bookmakers.
Proven Betting System 2 – Value Betting.
Value betting is similar to arbitrage betting as it involves exploiting the soft bookmakers. A value bet involves looking for odds that are out of line with the sharp Asian Bookmakers or betting exchanges.
Given that the odds at sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges are quite efficient in big markets. The betting exchanges and sharp Asian bookmakers often offer close to the true odds of an event. Sometimes when there is odds movement on these events soft bookmakers will be slow to move their odds.
Consistently betting on odds above the Asian bookmakers and betting exchanges has proven to be profitable.
The advantage that value betting has over arbitrage betting is that you generate a much higher turnover and use lower stakes which may make your accounts last longer then conventional arbitrage betting.
A lot of bookmakers will also offer value accumulators often on a weekly basis as part of odds boosts or special promotions.
Negatives of value betting?
Again the only downside to consistently taking value bets is that soft bookmakers will eventually see that you are able to make money from them and will limit or close your account.
However if you plan to make money from sports betting. Getting banned from soft bookmakers is going to happen whichever way you choose to make money from them.
Proven Betting System 3 – Matched Betting.
The popularity of matched betting has exploded in the last few years and with good reason.
Matched betting is probably one the best and easiest ways to generate a good second income online. It involves taking advantage of bookmaker offers to guarantee a profit much like arbitrage.
The big advantage that matched betting has over arbitrage is that is a lot less obvious and harder for bookmaker’s employed traders to spot.
I have covered matched betting in a lot more detail in this article below.
Negatives of matched betting?
There isn’t many downsides to matched betting. Bookmakers will stop giving you promotions eventually. But as discussed before this is what happens when you become a profitable sports bettor.
So there you have 3 proven betting systems that are currently working in 2020. Which should also prove be profitable in the long term.
Each of these betting systems involve exploiting soft bookmakers.
This is really the best way to start making money from the sports betting markets and allows you to build up a nice trading bankroll or good second income.
Proven Betting System 4 – Betting On Team News.
One proven betting strategy that you might know is reacting quickly to team news.
Odds can rapidly change on the basis of team news, if you have a good knowledge of the teams that are playing.
Then you will often be able to secure yourself a value bet.
Here is a good example of how odds can change when a teams lineup is announced.
In this example I have highlighted the point at which team news was announced.
This was a Europa League between Arsenal and Standard Liege.
Arsenal announced a weaker side then expected, from this news the odds on Arsenal drifted quite significantly before the game started.
If you were familiar with the teams and reacted to the information you would have been able to secure yourself a value bet on Standard Liege. Due to the fact that Arsenal’s odds were drifting so the odds on the draw and Standard Liege would have to shorten.
This is a really effective strategy and if you have access to betting exchanges you can often secure yourself a profit before the game even starts.
Here are two videos which explain this strategy in more detail.
Which betting systems have you found to work best?
Are there any that are missing from this list?
How Do I Create a Sports Betting Algorithm or System?
It might come as a surprise to most to hear that some of the best sports handicappers on the planet rely on a particular "betting system" more so than their knowledge of the sport or sports they bet on. Don't get me wrong, these handicappers are very smart people, but their consistent success is due to the fact they've been able to develop "betting systems" throughout their years in the industry that they trust and rely on 100 percent of the time. These systems are complex and thorough and with the right tweak of data every now and then, the systems continuously churn out updated information for future betting situations.
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What is a Betting System?
When you hear someone talking about a certain "betting system" they are referring to a system that is in place that uses a specific set of rules or criteria to avoid making a subjective decision when thinking about a particular wager. Such betting systems are the product of extensive data mining in which numbers, statistics and trends are dug up to help a bettor find the most logical way to wager on future games with similar traits. To simplify, a handicapper would look for situations where X happened, and Y immediately followed. Going forward, if X were to happen again, a play on Y would be in order. There are "betting systems" for things like blackjack, roulette, baccarat and horse betting. However, for the purpose of this article, I will stick to "betting systems" within sports betting.
How Do Betting Systems Work?
There are countless types of "betting systems" a handicapper can utilize when looking to gain an edge over the sportsbooks. Some are self developed while others have been around for several years. For example, some handicappers prefer to look for statistical reoccurrences, while some think studying a team's schedule could help them find situations in which a team is expected to play better or worse. There are also some handicappers who look for surprising line movement and then make their play on or against it. Whatever your system is, once the specific criteria is in place, you can quickly sort through a high volume of available games and identify the ones that fit the system. However, once you have circled the few games that fit the system, you must dig deeper to find out if there is value to be had and if it's worth wagering on.
How to Create a Betting System?
When most people think hear the term "betting system" they instantly think it's beyond their paygrade and so sophisticated in stature. Sure, some sports betting system are created by math geniuses looking for value. And while these may be complex and fly directly over the head of an average bettor, these are generally the exception.
If you wanted to create your own betting system, the first step would be to identify what you want to target and then come up with an idea of how you are going to collect the data. The best sports betting systems all start with a single trend or statistic, and then it snowballs from there. To keep the system relevant, you must constantly build on it, tweak it and adjust it as time passes to keep from going stale and to continue turning a profit.
In the year 2019, we have more information available to us than we have ever had before, and the availability of real-time data and statistics allow us to instantly plug in the information and see how it fits. There is no waiting required as the excel sheets and the amount of computer power we possess have the ability to instantly crunch the numbers and spit out a conclusion that can then be turned into profit. Use the information available to you and do something positive with it. The information is available for everyone to consume, and building a betting system is a step on the right path when it comes to understanding the sports betting industry and helping you profit over time.
The Flaws of a Betting System.
If sports betting was as easy as following trends and wagering on certain situations, we would all be super rich. Unfortunately it isn't, and each "betting system" has its own flaw. Before I get to the flaws, I want to touch on how the sportsbooks react to these "betting systems." For starters, sportsbooks are not dumb. They employ knowledgeable sports people who are paid to track these sorts of things. If a sportsbook feels vulnerable to a specific trend, they will adjust the line or price and try to take the edge away from the bettor. This means that finding a true "betting system" that provides a long-term edge for bettors is much tougher than most handicappers like to believe.
Over many years of handicapping, I have come to find that the biggest problem with "betting systems" is sample size. For example, if you flip a coin 1,000 times the split between heads and tails should be pretty close to even - 500 per side. However, if you were to shrink the sample size to just 10 flips, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a more severe split - say 7/3 in favor of heads, or 8/2 in favor of tails. Because of this severe split, handicappers are quick to assume that seven or eight out of 10 is a reasonable expectation over the long term. Positive results like this lead to greed and cutting corners, not to mention false expectations. If you value your bankroll like most successful handicappers, you need to avoid putting any stock in betting systems that aren't proven over an extender period of time.
Betting System and Algorithm Success Addendum from Doc's Sports' Arun Shiva (formerly Indian Cowboy)
Check Shiva's handicapping info page here . It's not every day a Sports Handicapper has a Masters in Biostatistics, but that is something that has helped myself and my team over the years. When one speaks of algorithms, people have a tendency to get scared or intimidated. But it doesn't have to be that way. In a world filled with Metrics and Analytics, I think people can get a bit scared as the traditional way of how we look at sports gets taken away. People become uncomfortable with the idea that numbers are driving draft picks, the way we watch the game, or how we handicap a contest. I am a firm believer in both. It is like your Right Eye and your Left Eye. You need them both.
I believe Numbers and Algorithms are important in tracking what you are looking for. For us, it is bounce-backs for a team or pitcher, regressions of a team or pitcher, let downs, revenge, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, the all-important turnover/assist ratio, field goal percentage up tick or regression, and the list goes on. So, when you do algorithms, you have to base your algorithms on what YOU are looking for. Don't let the numbers tell you what to dictate. Find out what you want from the numbers. How well a team does after a win, a loss, a terrible turnover performance, a poor assist performance, or a terrible offensive or defensive performance. Have numbers be your Right Eye.
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How to Create a Sports Betting Algorithm.
Building a sports betting algorithm is no fun. It takes hours and hours of entering data, sorting spreadsheets, setting up databases, testing, and more testing. And all this is no guarantee that it’s going to start spitting out winners like an ATM. But if you love sports and sports betting, it can be an amazing thing to create.
Bookmakers have math geniuses with degrees up the wazoo from the finest schools in the world working day and night with every possible tool at their disposal in order to compose the odds/lines/spreads that the whole world is trying to beat. It’s going to take time and a boatload of effort to create an algorithm that can win, but if you feed the beast the right info, you can create a winning formula . So where do you start?
Data, Data, and More Data.
Your model is going to need data and tons of it – the more you put in, the better your algorithm is going to turn out. It is just as important what data you put into the model. A deep knowledge of whatever sport you are building the algorithm for is of the utmost importance. Go through your mind thinking, “What are the important stats in determining the outcome of a game?” And then you can start importing them into your model.
Let’s look at football and the key stats that determine the outcome of a game: Win-lost record, points scored, points allowed, yards gained on the ground, yards gained passing, turnovers, penalties, home or road game, time of possession, kicking, punting, kick and punt returns, red zone efficiency for offense and defense, and third-down efficiency. There are probably a hundred more pieces of data that go into making the algorithm for football. Now comes the hard part – How do you weight that data so it all balances out? This takes time, trial, and error.
Before you start betting real money, run the algorithm against games in the past and determine its accuracy in those past games. You should keep tweaking and changing the weighting so that the results are more accurate with the past performance.
Where Does the Data Come From?
Many services out there can provide you with all the data you need to create your algorithm. Some of them are free, and some of the deeper dives can cost you an arm and a leg.
To save yourself money and the unholy hell that can be data entry in creating your model, I would strongly suggest investing in some data scraping software. This software will allow you to scrape data from websites directly into spreadsheet format. Learning how to do this (and it’s fairly simple these days with the great range of intuitive software available) will save you hours, if not days or weeks, in data collection as well as the subscription cost of paid services.
Other Models to Learn From.
Before beginning the process, I would take a deep dive into some of the other, more popular data-driven algorithms that predict sports and football. One is the ESPN Football Power Index that aggregates stats and determines the probability of one team beating the other.
Analytics Powerhouse FiveThirtyEight runs scores of football predictions using their ELO method. It also runs an annual contest to see if people can defeat their algorithm. They even let you take a peek into their code, which can help serve as a template for your algorithmic adventure: NFL ELO GAME .
A third company, TheOddsFactory , out of Sweden, runs Monte Carlo simulations on sporting events around the world. They play the game 10,000 times using their program and spit out the most likely result of the game. The company has information on its site that can also help out.
In Conclusion.
You’re going to have to love sports and sports betting to go through all the painstaking work it takes to create a sports betting algorithm. But if you can do the groundwork and stick to a game plan, I’m pretty sure you can create something that will bring you joy and maybe even a few extra dollars.
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