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п»їThe Trojan Horse: sports betting.
The overall gaming industry is in a period of dramatic expansion. In May 2018, the United States Supreme Court overturned a federal ban on sports betting. The decision did not legalize sports betting per se; it instead said that the federal law was unconstitutional, leaving it, like all other forms of gaming, a matter for states to decide. It concurrently opened the door to the fastest expansion ever seen in gaming. In two and a half years, thirty states have either introduced operational sports betting or will in the near future.
The speed of the expansion should not be surprising. Sports are popular. Very, very popular. It was estimated that over 200 million people attended a sporting event in the United States in 2013, generating more than $100 billion in revenue. And the number of people who watch games on television is much higher than those that attend in person. Advertising revenue from televised sporting events in any one year is many times that of in-person ticket and other stadium sales, like food and beverage. In the major cities, the local professional sports teams engender something close to religious devotion among their followers. People are passionate about “their” teams, and betting those passions has been common for a long time. It wasn’t legal, but it was common.
So when the Supreme Court opened the door, there was strong popular support. There are two ways that sports betting, or any other gambling, can become law: the state legislature can craft and pass legislation that is then signed by the governor, or a referendum can be called. In a referendum, the issue is placed on a ballot and voted on by the citizens of the state. The public referendum may have some organized opposition, but for the most part it is a popularity contest, and in our contemporary culture, sports will win a popularity contest every time.
The legislative method is a part of the normal political process. One of the two major political parties puts forward the proposition, and the opposing party objects to and fights against it. The crafting of the bill is the art of the deal, with just enough compromise included to pass the measure. During the debates, both sides makes their arguments. The party in favor usually makes a financial argument, something along the lines of “If we pass this bill, it will keep money at home that is now crossing the borders to other states. It will create jobs and investment and bring millions of dollars in taxes into the state’s treasury.” The revenue, job and tax projections are weighted to strengthen the bill, but they are rarely valid. In the last twenty years, it is unlikely that any revenue and tax predictions for new gaming options have been accurate.
That has certainly been the case with sports betting. In the initial flush of enthusiasm, lawmakers and lobbyists predicted major increases in casino and tax revenues. Take New York, for example. Advocates were sure that the state would make millions from taxing sports betting, enough, at least, to plug a budget hole or two. It has not quite worked out that way. In November, New York collected about $200,000 in taxes from $2.6 million in sports win. The state, the fourth-most populous in the country, has more people than any other state that currently has sports betting, and yet it is not colleting enough money to do much more than pay the salary of the taxman. In the same month, New Jersey had $6.2 million in tax revenue, Pennsylvania $10.3 million, Indiana $2.4 million, and Illinois $6.3 million. Why such disparity, then, when New York has the most people?
The answer, unsurprisingly, is availability. States with online betting are generating considerably more revenue than those with only retail options. Online wagering accounts for between 80 and 90 percent of the handle, and the handle in states with online wagering is double or triple that of states with only retail betting. The significance of online and mobile betting was not apparent in the beginning; in fact, it rarely was part of the public debate. However, some companies understood the potential. FanDuel and DraftKings certainly knew its importance, and Caesars, Penn, and MGM recognized it early on. The rest of the industry was slower to get it. The Rosetta Stone, so to speak, came in the form of the results from Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Every month for the last year – in other words, largely during the pandemic – the trend has become more pronounced; online revenues have grown exponentially, while retail betting has struggled. And then when Colorado, Illinois, and Indiana began reporting, the trend jumped off the page. Sports betting may be popular, but, restricted to the retail environment, it is no more inherently popular than any other casino game. When it’s available on every smartphone in a state, however, its popularity is virtually off the charts.
Until recently, lawmakers were not thinking about availability. They were focused on the legalization process and potential tax revenue. That is quickly changing. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, realizing the importance, has suggested the state revisit the legalization and authorize online wagering to make up for its budget shortfalls, and California is currently in a sports betting debate. Mobile betting is not yet foremost in that debate, but it is creeping into the conversation. The state’s Indian tribes would like to retain control of the betting and are collecting signatures to put the issue on the ballot; the draft referendum would allow the tribes to conduct sports betting and expand their menu of casino table games. The tribes have not taken a stand on retail versus online; for them, control is the central issue.
California’s referendum will not be on the ballot before November 2022. In the meantime, the state legislature may take up the issue. In a conventional bill, the retail-versus-mobile issue is going to be important; and with data reflecting the experiences of 30 other states in hand, the debate will be more informed. Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank had this to say: “In a retail-only market, we believe state gaming revenue forecasts would likely need to be reduced by anywhere from 30-50%, if not more.” That is as clear as it gets. The lawmakers will be listening.
The popularity of sports and sports betting in this country is clear, but for sports betting to be really profitable for the states and the operating companies, it needs to be mobile, and the success of that mobile wagering will act as a model for more online wagering. As mobile sports betting continues to gain steam, it is likely to pull other forms of gambling along with it. In both Pennsylvania and New Jersey, online gambling is successful. During the pandemic, it has been the salvation of both the states and the companies who operate there. New Jersey’s results in particular have inspired a trend in casino companies’ business models, and the list of gaming companies with an online division is growing. Golden Nugget, MGM, Wynn, Caesars, Penn, and Bally’s (formerly Twin River) are all preparing for expanded online options as they build their sports betting franchises.
A couple of years ago, online gaming was seen as a federal issue. Seemingly every session of Congress had a bill looking to ban it. But the 2018 Supreme Court decision has changed the narrative to a state’s rights issue. Sports betting is becoming an effective Trojan Horse, bringing mobile sports betting and online slot machines and table games into Troy. Sheldon Adelson and the other opponents of online gambling built a wall and guarded it carefully, but the Supreme Court allowed the Greeks to bring in their wooden horse. The cause is not yet lost, but the tide of battle has changed.
The Trojan Horse: sports betting.
The overall gaming industry is in a period of dramatic expansion. In May 2018, the United States Supreme Court overturned a federal ban on sports betting. The decision did not legalize sports betting per se; it instead said that the federal law was unconstitutional, leaving it, like all other forms of gaming, a matter for states to decide. It concurrently opened the door to the fastest expansion ever seen in gaming. In two and a half years, thirty states have either introduced operational sports betting or will in the near future.
The speed of the expansion should not be surprising. Sports are popular. Very, very popular. It was estimated that over 200 million people attended a sporting event in the United States in 2013, generating more than $100 billion in revenue. And the number of people who watch games on television is much higher than those that attend in person. Advertising revenue from televised sporting events in any one year is many times that of in-person ticket and other stadium sales, like food and beverage. In the major cities, the local professional sports teams engender something close to religious devotion among their followers. People are passionate about “their” teams, and betting those passions has been common for a long time. It wasn’t legal, but it was common.
So when the Supreme Court opened the door, there was strong popular support. There are two ways that sports betting, or any other gambling, can become law: the state legislature can craft and pass legislation that is then signed by the governor, or a referendum can be called. In a referendum, the issue is placed on a ballot and voted on by the citizens of the state. The public referendum may have some organized opposition, but for the most part it is a popularity contest, and in our contemporary culture, sports will win a popularity contest every time.
The legislative method is a part of the normal political process. One of the two major political parties puts forward the proposition, and the opposing party objects to and fights against it. The crafting of the bill is the art of the deal, with just enough compromise included to pass the measure. During the debates, both sides makes their arguments. The party in favor usually makes a financial argument, something along the lines of “If we pass this bill, it will keep money at home that is now crossing the borders to other states. It will create jobs and investment and bring millions of dollars in taxes into the state’s treasury.” The revenue, job and tax projections are weighted to strengthen the bill, but they are rarely valid. In the last twenty years, it is unlikely that any revenue and tax predictions for new gaming options have been accurate.
That has certainly been the case with sports betting. In the initial flush of enthusiasm, lawmakers and lobbyists predicted major increases in casino and tax revenues. Take New York, for example. Advocates were sure that the state would make millions from taxing sports betting, enough, at least, to plug a budget hole or two. It has not quite worked out that way. In November, New York collected about $200,000 in taxes from $2.6 million in sports win. The state, the fourth-most populous in the country, has more people than any other state that currently has sports betting, and yet it is not colleting enough money to do much more than pay the salary of the taxman. In the same month, New Jersey had $6.2 million in tax revenue, Pennsylvania $10.3 million, Indiana $2.4 million, and Illinois $6.3 million. Why such disparity, then, when New York has the most people?
The answer, unsurprisingly, is availability. States with online betting are generating considerably more revenue than those with only retail options. Online wagering accounts for between 80 and 90 percent of the handle, and the handle in states with online wagering is double or triple that of states with only retail betting. The significance of online and mobile betting was not apparent in the beginning; in fact, it rarely was part of the public debate. However, some companies understood the potential. FanDuel and DraftKings certainly knew its importance, and Caesars, Penn, and MGM recognized it early on. The rest of the industry was slower to get it. The Rosetta Stone, so to speak, came in the form of the results from Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Every month for the last year – in other words, largely during the pandemic – the trend has become more pronounced; online revenues have grown exponentially, while retail betting has struggled. And then when Colorado, Illinois, and Indiana began reporting, the trend jumped off the page. Sports betting may be popular, but, restricted to the retail environment, it is no more inherently popular than any other casino game. When it’s available on every smartphone in a state, however, its popularity is virtually off the charts.
Until recently, lawmakers were not thinking about availability. They were focused on the legalization process and potential tax revenue. That is quickly changing. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, realizing the importance, has suggested the state revisit the legalization and authorize online wagering to make up for its budget shortfalls, and California is currently in a sports betting debate. Mobile betting is not yet foremost in that debate, but it is creeping into the conversation. The state’s Indian tribes would like to retain control of the betting and are collecting signatures to put the issue on the ballot; the draft referendum would allow the tribes to conduct sports betting and expand their menu of casino table games. The tribes have not taken a stand on retail versus online; for them, control is the central issue.
California’s referendum will not be on the ballot before November 2022. In the meantime, the state legislature may take up the issue. In a conventional bill, the retail-versus-mobile issue is going to be important; and with data reflecting the experiences of 30 other states in hand, the debate will be more informed. Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank had this to say: “In a retail-only market, we believe state gaming revenue forecasts would likely need to be reduced by anywhere from 30-50%, if not more.” That is as clear as it gets. The lawmakers will be listening.
The popularity of sports and sports betting in this country is clear, but for sports betting to be really profitable for the states and the operating companies, it needs to be mobile, and the success of that mobile wagering will act as a model for more online wagering. As mobile sports betting continues to gain steam, it is likely to pull other forms of gambling along with it. In both Pennsylvania and New Jersey, online gambling is successful. During the pandemic, it has been the salvation of both the states and the companies who operate there. New Jersey’s results in particular have inspired a trend in casino companies’ business models, and the list of gaming companies with an online division is growing. Golden Nugget, MGM, Wynn, Caesars, Penn, and Bally’s (formerly Twin River) are all preparing for expanded online options as they build their sports betting franchises.
A couple of years ago, online gaming was seen as a federal issue. Seemingly every session of Congress had a bill looking to ban it. But the 2018 Supreme Court decision has changed the narrative to a state’s rights issue. Sports betting is becoming an effective Trojan Horse, bringing mobile sports betting and online slot machines and table games into Troy. Sheldon Adelson and the other opponents of online gambling built a wall and guarded it carefully, but the Supreme Court allowed the Greeks to bring in their wooden horse. The cause is not yet lost, but the tide of battle has changed.
Colorado vs. USC Odds & Picks: Bet the Trojans Behind Freshman Evan Mobley.
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Evan Mobley.
The Colorado Buffaloes travels to Los Angeles on Thursday night to take on the USC Trojans in a Pac-12 showdown. The Trojans have some impressive talent on their team, and they'll need production to defend their home court. Check out BJ Cunningham's full betting breakdown complete with a pick below.
Colorado vs. USC Odds.
Colorado looks to rebound from its loss at Arizona on Monday when it heads to Los Angeles to take on USC to end 2020.
The Buffaloes have basically taken care of business against lesser competition and gotten blown out whenever they face a top-50 opponent. They had most of their core return for the 2020 season but are projected to finish near the bottom of the Pac-12.
Before their win over Santa Clara on Tuesday, it had been over 20 days since the Trojans had played a game.
USC had to go on pause due to COVID-19 issues within the program but is now healthy enough to play. The Trojans have plenty of talent to compete at the top of the Pac-12, but the question is whether or not they put all the pieces together.
When Colorado has the ball.
Balance has been the key for Buffaloes this season, as they are shooting a high percentage from all areas of the floor. However, where they excel the most from 3-point range and at the free-throw line. In fact, Colorado is shooting over 85% from the charity stripe, which is the second-best mark in the country.
Losing their best player, Tyler Bey, was always going to make things difficult, but head coach Tad Boyle kept the core of McKinley Wright, D’Shawn Schwartz and Evan Battey together, which should keep Colorado competitive this season.
The Trojans made a big switch last year on defense, changing from zone to man-to-man, which paid off big time. USC went up 100 spots in the KenPom defensive efficiency rankings, and so far this season has been one of the best defenses in the Pac-12.
USC is the tallest team in the country, and that type of length has allowed it to excel at defending the opposing team’s shot. The Trojans are allowing an effective field percentage of only 41.3%, which ranks sixth in the nation. Outside of 7-footer Dallas Walton, Colorado’s next tallest player is 6-foot-8, so it’s going to be undersized against USC.
Key for Colorado on offense.
The Buffaloes are going to need to shoot a high percentage from beyond the arc because there are not going to be many opportunities at the rim since USC allows under 40% from 2-point range.
Key for USC on defense.
Keep Colorado off the offensive glass. Despite being the tallest team in the country, USC is below average at defensive rebounding. If the Trojans are able to keep Colorado off the glass and defend the 3-ball well, they should be able to win this game.
When USC has the ball.
If the Trojans are going to compete near the top of the Pac-12, it will be because of Evan Mobley. The 7-foot freshman was a consensus top-three recruit and might be the most talented player in the conference.
He’s already averaging almost 20 points through his first few games and will be a matchup nightmare for Colorado on Tuesday.
With Mobley in the lineup, the Trojans are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, hitting at a 38.6% rate, which is in the top 10 nationally. Like its opponents, USC is also shooting a high percentage from all over the floor right now.
Colorado’s defense has been above average all season, but it really struggled against Arizona on Monday, allowing the Wildcats to score 1.31 points per possession. The Buffaloes allowed the Wildcats to shoot over 47% from beyond the arc and will need to improve if they are going to contain USC, which shoots a similar percentage to Arizona.
Key for USC on offense.
Get the ball inside and crash the offensive glass. If you’re the Trojans, the way you win this game is by playing to your strengths. Colorado is average across the board on defense, so Mobley should be able to dominate the Buffaloes down low.
Key for Colorado on defense.
Force USC to shoot from deep. Colorado is going to have to double Mobley down low, so forcing the rest of the Trojans’ team to beat you is probably the only way it’s going to slow USC down.
USC vs. UCLA Odds & Picks: Bet the Trojans to Stay Undefeated in Saturday Showdown.
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: The USC Trojans.
The Victory Bell is on the line on Saturday as USC battles UCLA in a Pac-12 rivalry matchup. Trojan quarterback Kedon Slovis has been especially solid against the blitz season, leaving the Bruin defense to wonder how to attack him. Collin Wilson breaks down the rivalry game and shares a betting pick based on his analysis below.
USC vs. UCLA Odds.
This will be the 90th meeting of the battle for the Victory Bell, as USC leads the series against UCLA by a 42-32-7 margin.
UCLA has played five games in this shortened Pac-12 season, with its most recent victories over Arizona State and Arizona. The Trojans are undefeated after four games and rank 15th in the latest College Football Playoff standings.
USC Trojans.
Clay Helton’s seat may have cooled during the pandemic for one simple reason. His change made at defensive coordinator is paying dividends. The Clancy Pendergast era left the Trojans outside of the top 100 in plenty of categories, but the Todd Orlando era is off to a great start. USC ranks 16th in pass coverage while putting up a serviceable rush defense.
The USC offense had been under a microscope after navigating rough waters through the first two games. After returning to national average levels in Success Rate against Utah, the Trojans soared against Washington State on Sunday night college football.
Kedon Slovis led an attack that had saw seven passes go over 15-yards and a 53% Success Rate on passing plays. The Air Raid offense took a month to get in rhythm, but the results are now sustainable. Slovis finished the Cougars with five touchdowns and hitting nine different receivers during the game .
UCLA Bruins.
Through five games, the Bruins have lost two games by a combined nine points. Chip Kelly managed a victory against Arizona without starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The junior returned to action in a victory over Arizona State, throwing for an efficient 75% while accumulating two touchdowns.
The UCLA defensive front has applied pressure to Pac-12 quarterbacks this season, ranking top-15 in the nation. The biggest contributor to the Bruins’ defensive turnaround is Osa Odighizuwa. The senior has produced a team-high nine quarterback hurries and five sacks.
Betting Analysis & Pick.
This spot may feel similar to last season, as UCLA catches USC when the Air Raid is clicking. In 2019, Slovis threw for 515 yards and four touchdowns. The Bruins have improved against the pass this season, a result of bringing in the 4-2-5 scheme with defensive backs coach Brian Norwood.
CLICK THE DROPDOWN ARROW TO VIEW COLLIN’S MATCHUP MATRIX.
Odighizuwa and the rest of the UCLA defense should put pressure on Slovis, but the Trojan quarterback has been excellent so far this season. The sophomore has a higher adjusted completion percentage when blitzed versus no blitz . Slovis’ two interceptions on the season came on downs when the defense did not bring pressure.
College fantasy football leagues should take note of USC’s missing rush defense, ranking 115th in defensive rush explosiveness. Thompson-Robinson and the rest of the Bruin offense should break big runs against a Trojan defense that ranks 101st in tackling.
The biggest handicap is UCLA’s ability to stop the USC passing attack. Defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro was torched last season in a different scheme, but the implementation of a 4-2-5 may not help against USC.
Generally, the 3-3-5 scheme is a great formation with eight pass defenders. UCLA will pressure Slovis, but that’s a situation in which the quarterback has excelled.
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