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п»їSports Betting 101: What does the point spread mean, and why do people bet it?
As a fan, you don’t care if your team wins by a point or 100. A win is a win, though that 100-point win would be a little easier on the nerves.
In sports betting, how much a team wins by is usually all that matters.
The most popular way to bet for the two most popular sports, basketball and football, is with the point spread, also known as the “side.” Most baseball, hockey and soccer bets are on the moneyline, which is betting on a team to win straight up with adjusted odds. Football and basketball have moneyline bets available too, but most people will take the point spread.
The concept can be a bit confusing if you’ve never dabbled in sports betting before.
Why bet with the point spread?
The point spread was created to attract more action on a game. When the San Francisco 49ers are expected to blow out the Arizona Cardinals, it’s not enticing to lay $300 to win $100 on a moneyline. But when the 49ers are 11-point favorites and each side is -110 odds? That’s much easier.
Nothing sharpens your math skills better than trying to figure out how big your lead as a bettor is if you have a 22.5-point basketball underdog that is losing 90-72.
The problem with the point spread can be when a team — which really doesn’t care that you bet the favorite at -11 — has a 14-point lead but gives up a meaningless score at the end to win by only seven points. They’re still happy with the win. You, as a bettor, are not.
В© Provided by Yahoo! Sports Sportsbooks have large boards that display point spreads for all games that day. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
Point spreads lead to bad beats.
The most infamous example of a bad beat with the point spread probably came in the 2004 Final Four at the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Duke was a 2.5-point underdog against UConn. The Huskies rallied late and took a 79-75 lead on a free throw with 3.2 seconds left. The game itself was over; Duke couldn’t score twice in a few seconds. But Duke guard Chris Duhon pulled up for a running 3-pointer just over the half-court line and banked it in at the buzzer. Duke lost 79-78, but bettors who had Duke and 2.5 points won. March Madness is a huge event for bettors, and reports at the time estimated that Duhon’s “meaningless” shot resulted in a $30 or $40 million swing in Nevada. UConn players celebrated at the final buzzer. UConn bettors doubled over in pain. That’s the difference between betting the moneyline and the point spread.
Baseball and hockey have point spreads too, the “run line” in baseball and “puck line” in hockey. It’s generally 1.5 with odds adjusting accordingly. Taking a big baseball favorite at -1.5 runs can make the odds more palatable. Of course, betting the New York Yankees at -1.5 to bring down the odds from -190 to -110 isn’t too fun when they win 4-3 and you don’t cash a bet.
Betting on the point spread is the most common way to wager on sports. And the first time you take a favorite that wins the game but doesn’t cover the spread, you’ll understand every bettor’s heartbreak.
Super Bowl 2021 odds, predictions, expert picks: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs spread, line, NFL betting favorite, prop bets.
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Super Bowl LV is just one day away and the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to play on football’s biggest stage. Tom Brady will try to add to his NFL record book, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since Brady did it with the Patriots in 2003 and 2004.
See below for odds, picks, analysis and more for the 2021 Super Bowl. Plus, click here to get an EDGE with Rotoworld Premium for betting trends, live odds and more.
Super Bowl 2021 odds, favorite, spread, line.
According to PointsBet, the Kansas City Chiefs are this year’s favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the coveted Lombardi Trophy. See more on the point spread, moneyline and points total below:
Super Bowl 2021 prop bets.
Super Bowl LV expert picks, predictions.
Hayden Winks’ picks: The Super Bowl opening line started at Chiefs -3 with an over/under of 57.5 points, and I took the Chiefs and the under immediately after projecting a 30-24 final. The under is my favorite bet right now between the sides and total for a few reasons. Mike Florio’s pick via ProFootballTalk : Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 27 (Read analysis here, plus see more picks and predictions) Chris Simms’ pick: Chiefs to win over Buccaneers (Click here or watch the video above for Simms’ final score prediction) Peter King’s Super Bowl LV preview.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Week 12 matchup (Rotoworld)
The Week 12 Final Score Is Misleading.
The final score could’ve been closer to 38-24 if the Chiefs hadn’t coughed up a red zone fumble and settled for two red zone field goals, if the Chiefs kept their foot on the gas in the second half instead of chewing clock, or if Mike Evans hadn’t scored two garbage-time touchdowns in the fourth quarter. This game was a textbook example of how the final score doesn’t tell the full story.
Super Bowl LV player projections from Hayden Winks (Rotoworld)
Kansas City Chiefs projections.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB : Patrick Mahomes†projection looks crazy — nobody ever projects for 350 yards — but the Chiefs are very likely to throw 35-50 times against the Bucs. (Projection here) Chiefs Wide Receivers : WR Tyreek Hill went so nuclear against the Bucs in Week 12 (12-263-3) that I spent the 30 minutes it took to clip all of his touches from that game (video). The Bucs switched up their coverages then, but Hill kept getting open. I don’t think the Bucs have a single corner capable of hanging with Hill when they go to Cover 3 or Cover 1 man. (Projection here)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers projections.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers QB: Tom Brady also projects well. The Bucs may run the ball early — Kansas City’s defense faced the 28th-highest neutral pass rate this season because the Chiefs are typically light in the box — but Tampa’s projected game script favors a pass-heavy game as three-point dogs. (Projection here) Buccaneers Wide Receivers : Before the NFC Championship, Antonio Brown was reportedly “day-to-day”. It’s unknown if he’ll play in the Super Bowl, but I left him for now. Even at full health, Brown is not an every-down player. He lines up wide only in three-receiver sets and could even be pushed by Scotty Miller, who scored a long touchdown last game. (Projection here)
RELATED SUPER BOWL POSTS.
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What Is A Point Spread?
Betting Odds And Strategy.
Point spread betting is the most popular form of sports betting. The vast majority of sports wagers use a point spread thanks to the popularity of football and basketball. Even though this type of betting is so popular, it may take awhile to understand.
The point spread is sometimes known as an equalizer for sportsbook operators. All teams aren’t created equally, so sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. In a way, the point spread will even the field for both teams .
The point spread gives a reason for bettors to risk money on both teams. The better team playing in the game is considered favorite. They have to win by the point spread offered by the sportsbook. The favorite in a game is listed as being minus (-) the point spread.
Let’s use the upcoming Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers as an example.
Using this example, the Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites over the Buccaneers (currently Chiefs ). The Chiefs need to win by 4 or more points to cover the spread.
Likewise, the Buccaneers opened as 3-point underdogs. That means the Buccaneers would need to win the game outright or not lose the contest by 4 points or more. If the line is Chiefs -3 and they win by exactly 3 points, the betting result is a “push” and bettors for both sides would get their wagers refunded.
Point spread betting odds.
Point spreads are usually set with -110 odds , but pricing often fluctuates at online sportsbooks. This is the sportsbook operators’ house edge . The odds guarantee the sportsbook operator will see a little money over time. When the odds are set at -110, the bettor must wager $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10).
The odds on a point spread are most commonly known as the vigorish or “vig” for the sportsbook. You might hear this small profit margin for the sportsbook called the “juice” by some sports bettors.
Point spread FAQs.
What does вЂpick em’ or вЂpick’ mean in NFL betting?
A “pick em” (sometimes seen as “pick”) is when the teams have a point spread of zero, meaning neither team is favored. In this instance, you’re essentially picking moneyline and your bet will be determined on the winner alone.
A spread of minus-seven (-7) means that a is favored to win the game by a touchdown (technically, a touchdown and the extra point). A team favored by -7 must win the game by eight or more points to win the bet. If the team wins by seven, the result is a “push” and the bet is refunded.
A -3 spread means that the favorite must win by more than a field goal to win the wager. A three-point win would result in a push and the sportsbook would refund the wager.
Why are point spreads in the NFL so much lower than in college?
Point spread and odds movement.
Sportsbook operators often aim to have equal money on both sides of a point spread. When the money is exactly split the sportsbook operator will see the exact vigorish as their profit margin. If all things are equal over time this will maximize how much money the sportsbook operator can make.
In an effort to have equal money on both sides of a wager, the sportsbook operator will move the point spread to attract money on the side that customers aren’t betting on. The odds for a point spread might change before the actual point spread. There are certain point spread numbers, like 3 and 7 in football, the sportsbook operators would like to avoid moving away from since the final score margin falls on these two numbers most often.
For example, if a lot more money is wagered on the New England Patriots -3, the vig may shift from -112 to -115 and -120 before the line moves to -3.5.
Run and puck lines.
Football and basketball games are mostly bet using a point spread. The less popular major sports, baseball and hockey, are mostly bet using a moneyline . In an effort to make baseball and hockey more appealing to point spread bettors, the sportsbook operators offer run and puck lines, respectively.
These alternative lines give point spread bettors a chance to wager on other sports using a more familiar method of betting. Since points (runs and goals) aren’t as easy to come by in baseball and hockey, the odds with the lines may have a wider spread than a football or basketball game.
Bet with your head, not over it. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Point Spread in Sports Betting: Definition, Examples, How to Make a Super Bowl Spread Bet.
Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce.
Learn about point spreads in football betting ahead of Super Bowl 55 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The point spread is the great equalizer, giving every team an equal chance to cash a bet for you.
It’s impossible to separate sports betting in America and the point spread . They will forever be linked.
Point spreads are most commonly associated with higher-scoring sports like basketball and football, but can be used in any sport.
They’re the great equalizer, allowing bettors to wager on even the worst teams with some confidence.
So what is a point spread, how do you read it, and how to you make a spread bet? Let’s dive in.
What Is a Point Spread?
Click a section to jump ahead. 1. Point Spread Definition 2. Point Spread Examples, How it Works 3. What Does -110 Mean Next to the Spread? 4. How to Make a Spread Bet.
Point Spread Definition.
A point spread is a bet on the margin of victory in a game.
The stronger team or player will be favored by a certain number of points, depending on the perceived gap in ability between the two teams.
A minus sign (-) means that team is the favorite.
Here’s how DraftKings displays its point spreads for football, with the point spread boxed in red.
Point Spread Examples, How it Works.
Let’s use Ohio State at Penn State in college football as an example of how point spreads work.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are -6.5, meaning they’re the favorite. Remember that minus sign means they’re favored, and therefore the perceived stronger team.
The Buckeyes need to win by 7 points or more for their bettors to win.
What Does -110 Mean Next to the Spread?
You can read more about how to read American odds, but the number next to the spread is the juice associated with that bet. Most spread bets will be -110, so the sportsbook takes a 10% cut.
That means for every $1 you want to win, you have to risk $1.10. So if you want to win $20 on a bet, you’ll have to risk $22.
If you bet $22 on Ohio State -6.5 and the Buckeyes win by 10, you’ll win $20. If they only win by 5, you lose $22.
Point spreads have an even tax on both sides because we expect each team to cover the point spread about 50% of the time.
When betting moneylines — which requires you to pick the winner straight-up — you can get bigger payouts because the likelihood of the worse team winning the game outright is much lower than it just covering the spread.
How Do I Make a Spread Bet?
It’s easy to bet point spreads at a book like FanDuel or DraftKings. Here’s how it works:
Navigate to your desired sport. Click on the spread you want to bet in the game module (it will be lined up with the team you want to bet). Head to the bet slip on the right side of the page (on your phone, it will pop up automatically). Click “Login to Place Bet” and login, then submit your bet.
How Are Point Spreads Made?
We could write another 5,000 words about how point spreads are truly made, but in the simplest terms, it’s a 3-step process.
Oddsmakers build mathematically-driven ratings for each team before the season and continue to tweak them as games are played. They use those ratings, plus factors like home-field advantage, rest, and injuries, to create a point spread in advance of a scheduled game. Bettors then begin wagering on that initial point spread, which will influence the spread and move it to the most accurate possible number.
What Does Covering the Spread Mean?
“Covering the spread” is another way to say that a team won a point spread bet. In the above example, Ohio State winning by 7 points or more as a -6.5 favorite means they covered the spread.
If Penn State lost by 6 points or fewer, or won the game, they covered the spread.
ATS Definition.
What does it mean when a team is 9-2 ATS this season? ATS stands for “against the spread.” So an ATS record is simply wins and losses against the spread.
Run Lines & Puck Lines, Defined.
In hockey, a spread is referred to as the “puck line.” In baseball, it’s the “run line.”
The odds are just changed depending on the ability of the team — you won’t get -110 on both sides.
So you’ll get paid less for betting the Yankees -1.5 against the lowly Orioles than you would for betting the Yankees -1.5 against the Astros, when the two teams are more evenly matched.
Excel Sports Bet Tracking Spreadsheet 2021 (Free!)
Ever wondered how you are actually doing in sports betting?
Just like tracking your finances can be an eye opening experience (I spent how much at restaurants last month?!), tracking your bets can shed some light on your performance.
Download the free sports bet tracking spreadsheet below to get started (available for both Excel and Google Sheets):
Bet Tracker Spreadsheet: Instant Insights.
If you want to measure your performance and see where you are succeeding and failing, you need to track it.
With this free tool, you can see your performance broken down by various dimensions.
Have a great ROI on betting NBA 2nd halves? Getting solid closing line value on NFL point spreads? This spreadsheet allows you to answer questions like this and more.
How to use the spreadsheet.
While the spreadsheet is pretty straightforward, I’d like to walk you through how it works.
How to track sports bets.
Everything lives in the “Bet Log” tab. This is the only place information is manually entered. Once the data is entered there, all other tabs will automatically populate.
In the “Bet Log” tab, blue columns are required while red columns are optional. The more information you input, the more useful the spreadsheet will be.
Entering things like the closing line, while slightly annoying, will also be the most important to your success.
How to analyze performance.
Each tab will have different graphs and tables that show your performance. The beauty of this is that you can filter the data by any dimension you like.
Any yellow cell is an “input” cell that can be changed. All of these are dropdowns that are pre-populated based on the information you enter in the Bet Log.
How to add more leagues and teams.
To add new leagues and teams, you will do so in the “REF” tab. This tab holds all of the lookup information for the dropdowns throughout the spreadsheet.
Again, the cells available to modify are in yellow. You can add the following dimensions:
Leagues (ex: WNBA) Teams (ex: Chicago Sky) Tags (ex: 2nd half)
Bet Tracker Spreadsheet Metrics.
Deciding what to track is important in determining how you measure success. The spreadsheet tracks the following key metrics:
Closing Line Value.
Closing line value (CLV) is a measure of how much better or worse the odds you bet at were compared to where they closed.
If you believe the markets you are betting into are efficient (NFL point spreads, MLB moneylines, etc.), then CLV is a great predictor of long term success.
All you need to do is input the odds you placed your bet at as well as where the odds closed. Preferably you use a market making sportsbook like Pinnacle to decide what the “true” closing line was.
Profit.
Profit is about as simple as it gets. Are you making or losing money?
While this is the “bottom line”, surprisingly it isn’t always predictive of long term success. Still, you will obviously want to see how much money you have made or lost.
This is what most people tend to look at. It is a measure of how profitable you are relative to how much you are risking.
While at the end of the day, the money in your pocket is what matters, this metric focuses more on results rather than process and is a measure of efficiency.
ROI isn’t as predictive of long term winning as CLV, but is useful to track to see where you stand.
This one is simple, yet will likely give you insights into where you are putting your money.
If you have a model, does it consistently value the Dallas Cowboys differently than the market? Thus making many of your bets on the Cowboys? Analyzing your risk by league/team/bet type can give you these types of answers.
Bankroll.
Bankroll will track our running total of how much money you have in your accounts across all sportsbooks. You can also see this trended over time to help you see any changes in your betting strategy and how that has affected your bankroll.
It is very useful to see, at a glance, where your money lies. Is 95% of our bankroll at FanDuel? Maybe you should shift some to DraftKings.
Bet Tracker Spreadsheet Dimensions.
Having these metrics available is important, but insights really come from slicing the data by different dimensions.
League/Team.
Tracking your performance by league or team can give you clues into where your strengths or weaknesses are.
Do you watch every second of every New York Knicks game? Think you have an edge on Knicks games? You can find out using the spreadsheet.
Same goes for leagues. Do you follow NFL closely but use strictly numbers for NCAA Basketball? Compare the performance of the two and see what’s working.
Bet Type.
Looking at performance by bet type can also shed some light on your process, especially if it is model driven.
Track your performance by the following bet types:
Spread Moneyline Total Prop Future.
You can also use the “Tag” field to designate special types of bets. For example, if you want to see your performance on moneylines for NBA 2nd halves, you would put “2H” (or something similar) in the Tag field and “moneyline” in the bet type field.
A common way to analyze performance is to look at metrics trended over time.
Look at any of the metric/dimension combinations above trended over any time period you’d like.
Want to see your performance over the last 14 days? Or how about the last 12 weeks? Both are possible here.
Google Sheets Sports Betting Tracker.
The sports betting tracker is also available on Google Sheets. While the features are the same as the Excel file, Google Sheets has some notable benefits:
Available/online at all times Can enter bets on your phone using the Sheets app You don’t need to be at a computer to enter your bets Google Sheets auto saves any changes Allows multiple users to be in the sheet at the same time and make changes.
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