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   | Lunedi 20 Dicembre 2021 - 06:52
nfl football picks week 4:
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п»їPrisco's NFL Week 4 odds, picks: Cowboys rout Browns, Chiefs roll past Patriots, 49ers edge Eagles.
Prisco reveals his NFL picks for Week 4, including why the Packers and Bills will remain unbeaten.
Picking NFL games so far in the early season hasn't been as challenging for me as in years past. I went 9-7 against the spread last week for a season record of 29-18-1, which is good by any standards. My straight-up record is 33-14-1.
On the Pick Six Podcast, where we pick our best bets every week, I went 4-2 this past week and I am a sizzling 13-3 with my best bets. That includes a loss with the over in the Ravens-Chiefs game by a half a point in a game that had no business going under.
Let's keep up the hot start and I offer one big tip as we head to Week 4: Play the overs. Until they can show me otherwise, the NFL defenses stink this year.
All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (PK)
This is the dog game of the week, and it happens to be one that is on national television. Oh, boy. One of these 0-3 teams is a likely winner — there could be a tie — but who will it be? I'll go with the home team to wake up as Sam Darnold plays well and new Broncos starter Brett Rypien does not.
Pick: Jets 24, Broncos 17.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 4? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join host Will Brinson to break down their best bets and size up every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers.
The Cardinals are coming off a bad loss, and now must take a long trip to the East Coast. The Panthers have played much better on defense than expected, but I think Kyler Murray will get back on track here and have a big day. Cardinals take it.
Pick: Cardinals 35, Panthers 23.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Chicago Bears.
This will be Nick Foles in as the starter for the Bears, which should help the offense. But the Colts defense has played well the past two weeks, which will make it a challenge. Look for the Colts to win a tight road game.
Pick: Colts 28, Bears 21.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Bengals tied last week at Philadelphia, which is a victory of sorts. But this is a good chance to get a real win. The Jaguars are having issues on defense, which should make for a big game for Joe Burrow. Bengals win it.
Pick: Bengals 33, Jaguars 27.
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
The Cowboys are back home, but they better hope their defense shows up. It's been awful. The Browns can run the ball, which could be a problem. Even so, look for Dak Prescott to get the Cowboys another home victory.
Pick: Cowboys 35, Browns 23.
The Saints didn't look good in losing at home to the Packers, especially on defense. This is a tough road game to try and turn it around. Matthew Stafford played well last week, and I think he will in this one. But the Saints will score as well. They win a tight, high-scoring game.
Pick: Saints 31, Lions 30.
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-4.5)
This is a game matching two 0-3 teams, but one has looked far worse than the other. That's the Vikings. Last time out on the road they were dominated by the Colts. The Texans have played a brutal schedule, and they will take it out on the Vikings.
Pick: Texans 34, Vikings 21.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins.
This is the longest trip in the NFL, which is always a challenge. Miami is also rested after playing Thursday. Big edge to the Dolphins. But that's it. They won't be able to slow Russell Wilson. The Seahawks keep rolling.
Pick: Seahawks 37, Dolphins 23.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans.
Postponed due to COVID-19.
This is a long trip for the Chargers, and the question is who will be playing quarterback. It won't matter. Tampa Bay is playing well on defense and they will shut down the Chargers offense. Tom Brady will play well enough against a good Chargers defense.
Pick: Bucs 28, Chargers 21.
Baltimore Ravens (-13) at Washington Football Team.
The Ravens are coming off a bad showing in losing to the Chiefs. But Washington is the perfect tonic. Lamar Jackson and the offense will get back on track and win an easy one.
Pick: Ravens 34, Washington Football Team 17.
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13)
The Rams are home after two long road trips, which should be a comfort of sorts. The Giants are the team taking the long trip. They also aren't playing well. The Rams are playing well and that shows up. Blowout.
Pick: Rams 36, Giants 17.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
It's always a treat when these two get together, even if Tom Brady isn't a part of it anymore. The Chiefs are coming off an impressive showing at Baltimore and I think that carries over here. New England is great taking away one thing on offense, but this is an offense with many. Chiefs take it.
Pick : Chiefs 37, Patriots 24.
The Bills are riding high behind Josh Allen, but this is a long trip against a team coming off a loss. This is a be-careful game for the Bills. But I think Allen will win a shootout with Derek Carr as the Bills stay undefeated.
Pick: Bills 33, Raiders 31.
The Eagles haven't played well yet. Carson Wentz is struggling in a big way. Can he turn it around here? It won't be easy, even against a banged-up 49ers team. The 49ers take it in a close one.
Pick : 49ers 26, Eagles 21.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
The Falcons are coming off two major chokes in their past two games. They haven't looked good on defense at all. The Packers are rolling on offense with Aaron Rodgers and I expect that to stay that way. Packers big.
Pick: Packers 34, Falcons 26.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 4: Browns upset Cowboys; Packers, Bears stay unbeaten.
Week 4 of the NFL season features a little bit of everything.
There are two matchups between winless teams, including a "Thursday Night Football" gem between the Broncos and Jets. The more surprising matchup of winless teams is Vikings-Texans on Sunday, a game that will put the losing coach on the hot seat.
There are also great matchups. .
When dealing with spreads, the Ravens are a 14.5-point favorite against Washington and the Rams are a 13.5-point favorite against the Giants.
Who will join the 4-0 club in the NFL? Below are our picks and predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season. As always, our point spreads are courtesy of Sports Insider.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 4.
Denver Broncos (-2 1/2) at New York Jets.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
It’s a dynamite matchup between two of the three worst offenses in the NFL through three weeks. If the Broncos can protect Jeff Driskel or Brett Rypien, then Melvin Gordon and Jerry Jeudy should make a few big plays. The Adam Gase hot seat watch continues.
Pick: Broncos 21, Jets 18 ( Actual score: Broncos 37, Jets 28 )
Baltimore Ravens (-14) at Washington.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
It's a short week for Baltimore heading into this Beltway Battle. Washington has won the last two meetings, and none of the six previous matchups have been decided by more than 14 points. That said, Lamar Jackson presents too many problems, especially if Chase Young (groin) is out.
Pick: Ravens 33, Redskins 20.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow has given the franchise hope, but he’s also taken 14 sacks in the first three games. Jacksonville's Gardner Minshew has taken 10 sacks. This game might be more fun in a few years when the Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence at quarterback (if they can get him). Cincinnati gets Burrow in the win column here.
Pick: Bengals 23, Jaguars 20.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Russell Wilson is playing at a MVP level, and that will need to continue if the Seahawks shuffle their rushing attack without Chris Carson (knee). Tua watch continues in Miami, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has managed to hold that by not throwing a pick in his last two starts. The Seahawks should cover on the road and improve to 4-0.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Dolphins 20.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
A battle of two teams Tom Brady was deciding between in the offseason, and the veteran quarterback is coming off his sharpest performance of the season. Chargers rookie Justin Herbert struggled in his second start, and the Buccaneers have a surprising top-five defense through three games.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Chargers 21.
Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Carolina Panthers.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Kyler Murray threw three interceptions in Week 3, and the Panthers have a better turnover margin than Detroit. The Panthers return home after two weeks on the road, but without Christian McCaffrey it might be tougher for Teddy Bridgewater to match big plays with Murray in a tight contest.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Panthers 24.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Detroit Lions.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
This is a must-win game for a pair of 1-2 teams, and the Lions have won three of the last four meetings. Both defenses are giving up more than 30 points per game, and that means Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford should be able to turn this into a thriller. Take the over.
Pick: Saints 34, Lions 31.
Houston Texans (-4) at Minnesota Vikings.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
A pair of preseason playoff contenders are trying to hold off a 0-4 start. Houston wasn’t given any breaks by the schedule makers, but the Vikings have not inspired much confidence against AFC South teams the last two weeks. How much heat will Mike Zimmer and Kirk Cousins feel after another loss?
Pick: Texans 28, Vikings 24.
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Cleveland has taken care of business in two games since an embarrassing Week 1 loss, and that Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt tandem should work against Dallas' run defense. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott will keep the Cowboys going, but Baker Mayfield and Myles Garrett — both Texas natives — will match those big plays in a turning-point game for both teams.
Pick: Browns 34, Cowboys 31.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (NL)
NOTE: The Steelers-Titans game has been moved to Week 7 because of positive COVID-19 tests.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
For those who love hard-nosed, throw-back AFC football, this is the game for you. Pittsburgh must keep Derrick Henry under wraps, but the Titans have to hold a furious Steelers' pass rush that leads the NFL with 15 sacks. Pittsburgh joins the 4-0 club.
Pick: Steelers 24, Titans 21.
I ndianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Chicago Bears.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Colts have the league’s top defense, and Philip Rivers has settled in at quarterback. Chicago turned to Nick Foles last week, and the knack for winning close games continues at home. Yep, the Bears become the most-surprising member of the 4-0 club.
Pick: Bears 27, Colts 23.
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox.
The Giants average just 12.7 points per game, and that’s not going to cut it against a Rams team that has re-established its offensive rhythm. New York allows 123 rushing yards per game, and that could lead to another big game for Los Angeles running back Darrell Henderson. The big plays are coming.
Pick: Rams 35, Giants 17.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Bills have an opportunity to get off to a 4-0 start against an improved Raiders’ team. Josh Allen has emerged as one of the league’s top quarterbacks, but this matchup will come down to which team can feed off the running game. That's going to be tricky in a wild afternoon nail-biter.
Pick: Raiders 28, Bills 26.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
NOTE: The Patriots-Chiefs game has been postponed to a later date, perhaps Monday or Tuesday, because of positive COVID-19 tests.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
The Patriots are good with Cam Newton, but this is the second time in three weeks they can prove they will be a true Super Bowl contender. Patrick Mahomes is 1-2 in three career starts against the Pats, but the Chiefs average 31.3 points per game in those contests. It’s on New England to keep up this time, and they can’t quite do it this time. Kansas City is 4-0.
Pick: Chiefs 35, Patriots 32.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-6)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
Carson Wentz is under immense pressure here off the field, and the 49ers will provide more than enough on it. Despite injuries, the 49ers have recalibrated their offense. Nick Mullens will keep that rolling in the right direction at home, and it’s a chance to get the rushing attack going. The Eagles also have the league’s worst turnover ratio at –7.
Pick: 49ers 31, Eagles 19.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., NBC.
It’s about state of mind for the Falcons after back-to-back fourth-quarter collapses against the Cowboys and Bears. The Packers are riding high, but Matt Ryan has a 100.2 career passer rating against Green Bay. The home team has won the last six games in this series. The over is a good play here, too. The Packers will round out the 4-0 club heading into a bye week, but it won't be easy.
NFL Week 4 odds and picks: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs cover against Patriots, Joe Burrow gets first win.
Here's a look at who'll cover the spread in Week 4 of the NFL season.
And just like that, we've reached the first quarter of the 2020 season. As we look to Week 4 in the NFL, there are a number of juicy matchups that are worth sinking your teeth into. That includes Cam Newton and the Patriots heading int Kansas City to face a white-hot Patrick Mahomes, who is coming off a five-touchdown performance on Monday night. We'll also have the first career start for Nick Foles in a Bears uniform and we have Brett Rypien's Broncos taking on the 0-3 New York Jets on Thursday Night Football! Well, maybe that last one isn't so appealing.
In any event, the start of Week 4 brings us another week of picks. After a strong Week 2 -- particularly on my Locks of the Week (4-1 ATS, 5-0 SU) -- we did come back down to earth a bit, going 9-7 ATS, and that was really due to the poor production from my locks (1-4 ATS). Outside of those missed calls, we were a respectable 8-3 ATS for the rest of the Week 3 slate, which saved us. Below, we'll look to get back on track with those locks and stay sharp on the rest of Week 4. All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Which teams will cover the spread in Week 4? Pete Prisco, R.J. White and SportsLine's Kenny White join host Will Brinson to break down their best bets and size up every game; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
Locks of the Week.
Cleveland at Dallas.
1 p.m. ET (FOX) Point spread: Dallas -4.5.
The Cowboys have not been kind to gamblers through the first three weeks of the season, going 0-3 ATS for the first time since 1986. The good news here, however, is that clubs that have started 0-3 ATS over the last 10 years that are favored in their fourth game cover 64% of the time. Dallas' offense is potent enough to outlast a Cleveland team that is currently on a seven-game road losing streak ATS.
Pick : Dallas -4.5 Score prediction : Dallas 33, Cleveland 17.
L.A. Chargers at Tampa Bay.
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Tampa Bay -7.5.
Touchdown favorites are 11-3 ATS this season, which bodes well for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers when they host the Los Angeles Chargers. That said, L.A. is responsible for one of those losses, covering against the Chiefs (-8.5) in Week 2. The Chargers are banged up and the Buccaneers seem to be finding their stride after a shaky start to the season. Tom Brady is also 6-1-1 in his last eight starts as a touchdown favorite.
Pick : Tampa Bay -7.5 Score prediction : Tampa Bay 27, L.A. Chargers 17.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati.
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Cincinnati -3.
Joe Burrow nearly earned his first win in the NFL last week against Philadelphia but had to settle for a tie instead. While he may not have to wait much longer to see 'W' No. 1, Sunday's matchup between his Bengals and a feisty Jaguars team will be close. Gardner Minshew is 7-3 ATS as an underdog in his career, including at 2-0 ATS record this year. Jacksonville has also been stellar at covering when given extended rest. Over the last ten seasons, Jacksonville has the best cover percentage (70%) when given 7-plus days in between games.
Pick : Jacksonville and the points Score prediction : Cincinnati 21, Jacksonville 20.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee.
POSTPONED.
New England at Kansas City.
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Kansas City -7.
The Chiefs flexed their championship muscles on Monday night, handling the Ravens from wire-to-wire. Now, they get a New England Patriots team that is still trying to find its way with quarterback Cam Newton. While New England's offense may be able to put up points against the Chiefs defense, I think the Patriots secondary is a bit suspect, which could open the door for Patrick Mahomes (2-1 ATS against New England) to once again light up the scoreboard. Andy Reid also has a strong ATS record against Bill Belichick in his career, covering 60% of the time.
Pick : Kansas City -7 Score prediction : Kansas City 27, New England 17.
Rest of the bunch.
Denver at N.Y. Jets The pick: Denver Score prediction: Denver 17, N.Y. Jets 10.
Arizona (-3.5) at Carolina The pick: Arizona -3.5 Score prediction: Arizona 24, Carolina 17.
Seattle (-6.5) at Miami The pick: Seattle -6.5 Score prediction: Seattle 33, Miami 17.
Baltimore (-13) at Washington The pick: Baltimore -13 Score prediction: Baltimore 33, Washington 14.
Indianapolis (-2.5) at Chicago The pick: Indianapolis -2.5 Score prediction : Indianapolis 23, Chicago 17.
New Orleans (-4) at Detroit The pick: Detroit and the points Score prediction: Detroit 24, New Orleans 23.
N.Y. Giants at L.A. Rams (-13) The pick: L.A. Rams -13 Score prediction: L.A. Rams 27, N.Y. Giants 13.
Minnesota at Houston (-3.5) The pick: Minnesota and the points Score prediction: Minnesota 27, Houston 20.
Buffalo (-3) at Las Vegas The pick: Buffalo -3 Score prediction: Buffalo 24, Las Vegas 20.
Philadelphia at San Francisco (-7) The pick: Philadelphia and the points Score prediction: Philadelphia 24, San Francisco 20.
Atlanta at Green Bay (-7.5) The pick: Green Bay -7.5 Score prediction: Green Bay 27, Atlanta 17.
Picks Record.
Against the spread in Week 3: 9-7 ATS overall: 25-22-1.
Straight up in Week 3: 9-6-1 SU overall: 31-16-1.
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