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п»їUSA TODAY Sports' Week 12 NFL picks: Chiefs-Buccaneers battle highlights post-Thanksgiving menu.
SportsPulse: USA TODAY Sports' Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets for Week 12 in the NFL. Make some money while you digest your Thanksgiving dinner. USA TODAY.
Thanksgiving week is typically one of the best of an NFL season, chock full of tradition even casual fans can appreciate while watching the Lions and Cowboys on Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, this Turkey Day's scheduled main course – Ravens at Steelers in primetime – has been postponed to Tuesday after multiple Baltimore players and staff members tested positive for COVID-19.
So despite ongoing disarray in Detroit and Dallas, both teams facing opponents also buried below .500, those games will have to provide sufficient NFL Tryptophan for fans' football fix. (It is worth mentioning that the Cowboys-Washington winner assumes first place in the NFC East, at least temporarily, despite what will be a 4-7 record for the victor.)
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will have to wait a few extra days while trying to become the eighth team in the last quarter century to start 11-0 if it can sweep Baltimore.
However the sexy matchup of Week 12 has to be the Chiefs' visit to Tampa Bay, Kansas City hoping to keep pace with the Steelers in the chase for the AFC's top seed. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers look to right their ship after Monday's loss to the Rams while striving to solidify their playoff standing amid a 13-year postseason absence.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
After 4-0 weekend, can Pro Picks get Super Bowl teams right?
Not to brag — well, yes, to BRAG — Pro Picks was perfect straight up last weekend, selecting all four winners in the NFL's divisional round.
The problem with conference championship weekend is simple: We are torn. Any of the four not only can get to the Super Bowl, but win it.
Some might want to evaluate the remaining teams by quarterback pedigree, from Tom Brady to Aaron Rodgers to Patrick Mahomes to Josh Allen. Others will examine the coaches: Andy Reid, Sean McDermott, Bruce Arians and Matt LaFleur.
Still others pore through stats.
And then there's the old Ouija board.
We're a bit more scientific. But only a bit.
TAMPA BAY (plus 3 1/2) at GREEN BAY.
Such a delicious menu. Starting with Brady and Rodgers, naturally. Rodgers and Brady have never faced off in the postseason.
Super Bowls for much of the last two decades have been about Brady. He proved his greatness in taking New England to nine of them, winning six. He's recertifying that in his first season with the Buccaneers (13-5).
As a reminder, Brady holds postseason records for starts (43), victories (32), completions (1,065), passing yards (11,968), passing touchdowns (77). Only Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner and Craig Morton led two separate franchises into the Super Bowl.
This is the best array of offensive talent with Brady since he had Randy Moss in the record-setting 2007 season. And while Tampa Bay's defense isn't overpowering, it's the most solid of the four units still playing, particularly at linebacker.
Rodgers is in the midst of perhaps his best season, and he has already won two NFL MVP awards as well as the 2010 league title. His work with favorite receiver and fellow All-Pro Davante Adams has been exemplary, catapulting Green Bay to a second straight 13-3 mark.
“A lot of people didn’t think we’d be back here after last season,” Rodgers said. “We got a lot of interesting comments last year about us being the worst 13-3 team that people had seen. Not the same type of comments this year.”
Nope. The Packers are steady enough on defense, though they can be vulnerable against the run. They play such precise football, yet with imagination, a difficult blend.
It's going to be cold but probably not frigid at Lambeau Field, not that Brady and Rob Gronkowski will be uncomfortable. And the Bucs have won a franchise-record seven consecutive road games, including playoff wins at Washington and New Orleans.
Will they head back to Tampa to appear in a Super Bowl at their home stadium, an NFL first?
PACKERS 30, BUCCANEERS 27.
BUFFALO (plus 3 1/2) at KANSAS CITY.
As the reigning champions seek to become the first to repeat since Brady and the Patriots for the 2003 and 2004 seasons, they have to be at least a bit concerned that Mahomes left last week's victory with a concussion. The Chiefs aren't going to advance with Chad Henne at the helm.
Of course, Mahomes could be fine and as magical as usual. He has all the targets he needs in unanimous All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, another All-Pro in WR Tyreek Hill, and company. Kansas City's defense, led by yet another All-Pro in safety Tyrann Mathieu, gets overlooked for how improved it is.
The Chiefs are at home, will have some 17,000 very loud fans on hand, and carry the confidence and swagger from what they achieved last season.
And here comes Buffalo, which has been the AFC's best team the last two months. There is a solid balance between offense and defense on a roster that has matured impressively. The Allen to league receptions leader Stefon Diggs connection is as good as Rodgers to Adams. Allen is more of a threat to run for big plays than Mahomes — though not by much if Mahomes is healthy — and also has a deep receiving corps.
Where Buffalo must show its skill most is in pass coverage. Cornerback Tre'Davious White is superb, and the rest of the relatively unnoticed secondary is very capable. Look for plenty of big plays in this one.
We swear that Bills Mafia is not pressuring us. Yet .
BILLS 30, CHIEFS 27.
Last Week: Straight up: 4-0. Against spread: 2-2.
Season: Straight up: 176-88-1. Against spread: 131-116-8.
Best Bet: Straight up: 14-5. Against spread: 10-9.
Upset Special: Straight up: 8-10. Against spread: 8-8-2.
Sections.
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NFL picks against the spread, Week 8: Will the Steelers cover against the Ravens?
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We’re on to Week 8 in the NFL, with the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers facing off on Thursday. That means it’s time once again for our weekly look at the point spreads in order to help you win some money.
Last week, Steven Ruiz went 7-6-1 (51-46-5 overall) and Charles Curtis went 8-5-1 (52-45-5 overall) .
We now go to each of them for comments before their picks.
Charles: Look at us! This is the the most intriguing race in football, more NFC West than NFC East at this point. Overall: if you’re listening to us, you’re winning money.
Steven: And yet … I’m disappointed. I’m losing to Charles. It’s unacceptable and I vow to do better.
(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)
(NOTE: Eagles-Cowboys was off the board as of publishing.)
Falcons at Panthers (-2.5)
Charles: Panthers.
Carolina is clearly the better team on the defensive side of the ball and it feels like Teddy Bridgewater is rounding into form with his receivers, so I’ll take the favorites.
Steven: Panthers.
Carolina’s offense looks good under Joe Brady and the defense seemed to have Atlanta’s number in the recent matchup. A little home-field advantage with a quick turnaround doesn’t hurt, either.
Charles: Colts.
This one was tougher than it initially looked on paper. But the Colts are coming off the bye and I just don’t think the Lions do much against their D.
Steven: Colts.
I don’t know how to feel about either of these teams, to be honest. The Colts are clearly better but their insistence on running the football has held the offense back, and the Lions offense has gotten a boost from Kenny Golladay’s return from injury. But it’s the Lions, and you can’t go wrong betting against them.
Vikings at Packers (-7)
(AP Photo/Jim Mone)
Charles: Packers.
There is a chance for a backdoor cover here with the Vikings throwing the ball a ton and Dalvin Cook possibly back. But the Minnesota defense is so bad, I’m not buying it.
Steven: Packers.
The Vikings are in “fire sale” mode, which tells you everything you need to know about the coaching staff’s confidence in this team. Aaron Rodgers had a field day against this secondary in Week 1 and I don’t expect things to change.
Patriots at Bills (-3.5)
Charles: Patriots.
I bet on the Pats last and lost. I’m doubling down for one more week to cover simply because Bill Belichick is their coach. Is that dumb? Possibly.
Steven: Patriots.
It’s supposed to be windy in Buffalo on Sunday which could even things out for the passing games. If this turns into a matchup of run games, New England might have the advantage. Take the points.
Charles: Titans.
I’m pretty confident with this one — Derrick Henry runs all day, the defense clamps down on Joe Burrow.
Steven: Titans.
I’m with Charles. The Bengals have had a hard time slowing down play-action-heavy offenses — see: the Cleveland games — and nobody is doing that better than the Titans right now.
Raiders at Browns (-3)
(AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
Charles: Raiders.
Do we really believe in what we saw last week out of the Browns? They nearly lost to the Bengals. So I’ll back the road underdogs.
Steven: Browns.
The Raiders don’t have the defense to force Baker Mayfield to beat them on his own. Cleveland should have success on the ground, which will keep Mayfield out of third-and-long.
Jets at Chiefs (-19.5)
Charles: Chiefs.
Hey, the Jets covered last week against the Bills! Well, the Chiefs aren’t the Bills. Plain and simple.
Steven: Chiefs.
The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Jets have Sam Darnold and Adam Gase. That’s enough for me to lay the 19.5 points.
Charles: Rams.
It feels like this line is a tad too small. Tua Tagovailoa is making his first start, and I believe in the Rams’ defense enough to be disruptive.
Steven: Rams.
We don’t know what to expect from Tua in his first start so taking the known commodity feels like the smart bet.
Steelers at Ravens (-4)
Charles: Steelers.
Ugh, this pick makes me really nervous. All I can think of is Ben Roethlisberger and his short throws being kept in check by Baltimore’s defense … but the last undefeated team being underdogs by four? Hmm.
Steven: Ravens.
I think we’re going to see the worst of Ben Roethlisberger who has been able to feast on bad defenses all season. The Ravens are going to pressure him and force him to throw into tight windows. I don’t think he’s capable.
Charles: Chargers.
The Broncos have beaten the Jets and Patriots (with Cam Newton struggling). So I’m not buying what they’re selling. Justin Herbert gets it done again.
Steven: Chargers.
I have fully bought into the Justin Herbert hype and Drew Lock hasn’t been any better than the backups who filled in for him earlier in the season. It will be a close, low-scoring game, but the Chargers just have more talent.
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports.
Charles: Saints.
What? This is absurd. Yes, the Bears defense is good … but if the Saints score even 20 points, is Nick Foles going to get Chicago to 16? Nope.
Steven: Saints.
Drew Brees is back to playing at a high level and I just don’t think this Bears passing game is capable of exploiting New Orleans’ issues in the secondary.
49ers at Seahawks (-3.5)
Charles: 49ers.
I’ve said it week in and out — the Seahawks defense is vulnerable. The Niners are at a point where things are starting to click again, and they’ll at least cover here.
Steven: 49ers.
I don’t feel good about this pick, but I do feel good about Kyle Shanahan going up against this defense. That matchup alone will keep this one tight.
Charles: Buccaneers.
Wow, that’s a big spread. But do you really believe Daniel Jones won’t have like 43 turnovers against that defense? Didn’t think so.
Steven: Buccaneers.
I’m actually taking the over on those 43 turnovers. Jones might get strip-sacked 14 times in the first quarter alone. And the Giants defense will have no answer for this Bucs passing attack.
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Super Bowl 55 predictions: Chiefs or Bucs for NFL championship?
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