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»NFL Thanksgiving Day Picks, Predictions: Opening betting lines, odds, and scores.
Thanksgiving is upon us, and we break down our NFL picks and predictions using the opening betting lines and odds for the big day.
November 26, 2020.
We start the week by breaking down the opening betting lines and odds for Thanksgiving day, as we try to find value on the three-game slate with our NFL picks and predictions. This year, we get an interesting slate with the potential battle for the NFC East title between Dallas and Washington, the Pittsburgh Steelers defending their undefeated season against the rival Baltimore Ravens, and the Detroit Lions trying to stay in the NFC North discussions against the Houston Texans.
NFL Thanksgiving Day Picks, Predictions: Opening betting lines, odds, and scores.
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions.
The first game on the Thanksgiving slate is a matchup between the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions. The opening betting line in this one has hovered around -2.5 to -3 in the Texans favor. This is likely because they are coming off of a 27-20 win over the New England Patriots; that and the fact that their offense has looked significantly better than the Lions. At least the passing game has.
Where the Texans have really struggled is on the ground. They currently rank 31st in rushing offense, and that doesnt look like it will improve with their starting back David Johnson on IR. Duke Johnson hasnt been able to do very much in his place. However, he will be facing off against the 30th ranked rushing defense in the league. This could be the game the Texans finally start to establish the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions have been hit by the injury bug. They will be without their WR1 in Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola. Their secondary will also be missing key players. QB Matthew Stafford is still playing through an injury to his thumb, which clearly impacted his play last week in their 20-0 shutout loss to the Carolina Panthers.
These teams are both heading in different directions, and it is hard not to like the Texans in this matchup. Even with them being down both Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, I trust Watson to be able to move the ball on a bad Lions secondary.
NFL Thanksgiving Day Picks and Prediction: Texans 34, Lions 27.
How To Watch Lions Texans Thanksgiving Day.
Date: Thursday, Nov. 26 Time: 12:30 p.m. ET Location: Ford Field (Detroit, Michigan) TV: CBS.
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys.
This next game is a surprisingly important matchup that could help determine who is going to win the NFC East. Both these teams have losing records, but with the East being what it is, they are both still in contention.
Dallas is coming off an impressive win over the Minnesota Vikings, while Washington easily took care of the Cincinnati Bengals last week. This game will look to put strengths against weaknesses as the Cowboys high-flying offense will face one of its biggest tests against the Washington defense and dominant front seven.
Washington is a solid 10th in scoring defense, limiting opposing teams to 22.7 points per contest. Chase Young has been everything we expected and can wreak havoc on bad offensive lines. Luckily for Washington, the Cowboys have one of the most injured and underperforming offensive lines in the league. This might explain why these Thanksgiving day lines and odds are so close.
The Cowboys lost the first game between these two teams in a blowout. Washington dominated Dallas 25-3 in Week 7, but the Cowboys look like a much-improved team after their Week 10 bye and with the return of a healthy Andy Dalton.
The only way the Cowboys can get a win here is if the offensive line contains Young, and the team is able to establish the run with Ezekiel Elliott. That wont be an easy task, but it is attainable. Against Minnesota, Elliott looked like the explosive back he was in 2019, and Tony Pollard continues to prove he could possibly be a starting back on any other NFL team.
It will be close, but I have faith the Cowboys will continue to dominate the Thanksgiving holiday and get the win. Against the spread, I like Washington, but moneyline, I like Dallas.
NFL Thanksgiving Day Picks and Prediction: Cowboys 21, Washington 20.
NFL Picks Thanksgiving Day How To Watch Cowboys Washington Thanksgiving Day.
Date: Thursday, Nov. 26 Time: 4:30 p.m. ET Location: AT&T Stadium (Dallas, Texas) TV: FOX.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers.
Update November 25th: This game has been postponed to Sunday afternoon due to medical concerns.
The first meeting this season between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens was an instant classic. Ben Roethlisberger led the Steelers on a second-half comeback that saved their perfect season.
Unfortunately for Baltimore, they are coming into this game struggling. The Ravens have lost two in a row and three of their last four, hurting offensively with 24 or fewer points scored in each of those four games. The Steelers defense is not the unit you want to be coming up against when your offense is struggling.
Pittsburgh has recorded at least one quarterback sack in 67 consecutive games. After forcing four interceptions this past week, Pittsburgh has now had four consecutive games in which the defense has forced at least two turnovers. Over that stretch, theyve recorded seven interceptions and recovered five fumbles.
These Thanksgiving day lines and odds are just not long enough. Pittsburgh should win this one easily, especially with all of the pieces missing for the Ravens.
NFL Thanksgiving Day Picks and Prediction: Steelers 27, Ravens 17.
Thanksgiving football in the NFL: Game picks, playoff picture, schedule guide and more.
Pat McAfee and Rex Ryan agree that it's time for Jerry Jones to fire Jason Garrett after the Cowboys' loss to the Patriots. (1:26)
The Week 13 NFL slate kicks off with some great Thanksgiving Day football. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every Thursday game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game and the current playoff picture, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk's David Bearman hand out helpful nuggets, as well. It's all here to help get you ready for a loaded day of NFL football.
Let's get into the full Thanksgiving Day schedule, including a showdown between two NFC South teams on Thursday night in which one team can already clinch a playoff spot.
Jump to a matchup: CHI-DET BUF-DAL NO-ATL.
Playoff picture entering Thursday's games.
NFL Playoff Machine.
Simulate your own scenarios and check the latest playoff picture. Playoff Machine » • Full schedule » Standings » More »
AFC.
NFC.
The Saints will clinch the NFC South and a playoff spot with a win on Thanksgiving. Even if the Panthers were to win out, the Saints would hold the tiebreaker in the division. Per ESPN Stats & Information research, it would tie the earliest clinch of the NFC South in the division's history, which dates back to 2002 (2009 Saints, 2012 Falcons and 2015 Panthers).
Bears (5-6) at Lions (3-7-1)
12:30 p.m. ET Fox Matchup rating: 29.5 Spread: CHI -5.5 (37)
What to watch for: The Lions have lost seven of their past eight games, coach Matt Patricia is on the hot seat, and a local radio station and a local columnist have each called for Detroit fans to not show up Thursday to send a message to the Ford family about the direction of the franchise. Two weeks ago, Dallas fans invaded Detroit -- and if it happens again in front of a national audience, it could make waves. -- Michael Rothstein.
Editor's Picks.
Week 13 NFL Power Rankings: 1-32 poll, plus what each team is thankful for.
Who was that. Check out the NFL's Quarter 3 unheralded ballers.
Bold prediction: Bears rookie running back David Montgomery will rush for more than 100 yards. He has cracked 100 rushing yards in just one game this year, but he's fresh after carrying the ball only 13 times for 22 yards against the Giants. Why is that important? Because the Bears have an extremely tight turnaround with Thursday's game on the road. -- Jeff Dickerson.
Stat to know: The Bears' offense is 31st in the NFL in yards per play, 29th in yards per rush and 30th in passing yards per game. But then there is the Lions' defense, which ranks 26th in yards per play, 20th in yard per rush and 30th in passing yards per game.
What to know for fantasy: The Lions' Bo Scarbrough has 76.2% of the Detroit running back carries over the past two weeks (4.8 yards per carry). See Week 13 rankings.
Betting nugget: In its past 11 Thanksgiving Day games, Detroit is 1-10 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog (going back to 2004). Read more.
Dickerson's pick: Bears 16, Lions 13 Rothstein's pick: Bears 21, Lions 17 FPI prediction: CHI, 54.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)
Bills (8-3) at Cowboys (6-5)
4:30 p.m. ET CBS Matchup rating: 58.0 Spread: DAL -6.5 (47)
What to watch for: Dallas receiver Amari Cooper has just 17 receptions for 213 yards in six road games, but he has 39 receptions for 673 yards and five touchdowns in five home games, including more than 100 yards receiving in his past three home contests. Yet Buffalo is allowing just 184.3 passing yards per game and has allowed just one 100-yard receiver in a game this season. -- Todd Archer.
NFL PrimeTime on ESPN+
NFL PrimeTime continues this postseason with extended highlights and analysis following the conclusion of each day's playoff games. Watch on ESPN+
Bold prediction: Buffalo's Tre'Davious White holds Cooper to fewer than 40 yards as he continues his campaign as one of the NFL's elite cornerbacks. In all, the Bills hold the Cowboys under 300 yards but can't muster up enough offense of their own to get the win. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques.
Stat to know: The Cowboys have lost four straight Thanksgiving games against teams that entered with a win percentage as good as the Bills' current mark of .727. In fact, the last time they won a Turkey Day game against such a team was in 1999, when they won 20-0 against the 8-2 Dolphins.
What to know for fantasy: After producing just 274 receiving yards in his first seven games this season, Dallas' Randall Cobb has 307 in his past three games. See Week 13 rankings.
Betting nugget: Dallas is 1-3 ATS against teams with a winning record this year. And Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS on the road this season. Read more.
Louis-Jacques' pick: Cowboys 17, Bills 10 Archer's pick: Cowboys 31, Bills 20 FPI prediction: DAL, 78.5% (by an average of 10.5 points)
Saints (9-2) at Falcons (3-8)
8:20 p.m. ET NBC Matchup rating: 70.6 Spread: NO -7 (48)
What to watch for: The Falcons' offensive line looked disastrous in last week's loss to the Bucs, and coach Dan Quinn didn't rule out making some changes up front. The Saints seem likely to make some defensive adjustments, as well, after sacking Matt Ryan just once back in Week 10 and allowing the Falcons to rush for a season-high 143 yards that day. -- Vaughn McClure.
Bold prediction: New Orleans makes up for its dreadful 26-9 loss to Atlanta three weeks ago and holds the Falcons without a touchdown. The Saints' defense has been very good this year, but it should be extra motivated after a leaky 34-31 win over Carolina in Week 12. Getting cornerback Marshon Lattimore back from a hamstring injury would be a big boost. -- Mike Triplett.
Stat to know: Saints receiver Michael Thomas' 104 receptions are the most by a player through 11 games in NFL history. And he is on pace for 151 catches this season, which would be an NFL record (Marvin Harrison had 143 in 2002).
What to know for fantasy: New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees threw 45 passes without a single touchdown toss in these teams' first meeting this season, something he has only done five times in his Hall of Fame career. But it is worth noting that the last time he played in Atlanta, he produced the most fantasy points he ever has in a road game (40.5). See Week 13 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Saints are 11-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Read more.
Triplett's pick: Saints 20, Falcons 9 McClure's pick: Saints 24, Falcons 21 FPI prediction: NO, 55.7% (by an average of 2.0 points)
Best 2020 Thanksgiving Day football picks, predictions: NFL, college best bets, and 5-team parlay.
SportsLine's top NFL experts and college football model combine to pick a 5-team parlay that pays 20-1.
Although football fans no longer have the primetime Thanksgiving Day NFL matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens due to a COVID-19 outbreak, there will still be a tripleheader to digest. The Detroit Lions kick off the festivities in their traditional 12:30 p.m. ET slot by hosting the Houston Texans, followed by an NFC East grudge match between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Football Team at 4:30 p.m. ET. College football delivers in primetime on Thursday night, as Utah State hosts New Mexico at 7 p.m. ET.
All three 2020 Thanksgiving Day football games feature narrow spreads according to the latest odds from William Hill Sportsbook. The Lions are three-point underdogs to the Texans, while the Cowboys are three-point home favorites in the current NFL odds. New Mexico is a 6.5-point road favorite at Utah State in the latest college football odds. Before making your Thanksgiving Day football picks and parlays, be sure to see the latest Thanksgiving Day football parlay from the experts and proven computer model at SportsLine.
To pull this off, SportsLine is utilizing its top experts to make NFL picks and its proven computer model to make college football picks. It's an all-star cast of football experts that includes some of the top handicapping experts in the nation and a model with a track record of providing results.
SuperContest guru R.J. White (39-22 on Lions picks) has made the call on Texans vs. Lions, while veteran handicapper Mike Tierney (17-7 on Washington picks) is locked in on Washington vs. Cowboys. Meanwhile, the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model is 44-23 on its top-rated college football picks and is delivering a must-see predictions for New Mexico vs. Utah State, Lions vs. Texans, and Cowboys vs. Washington.
Now, the experts and the model have examined the latest NFL odds and college football betting lines, and their predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top Thanksgiving Day 2020 football predictions.
One part of the 2020 Thanksgiving Day football parlay we'll give away: The model is backing the over (46) to hit when Dallas takes on Washington. The over is 7-2 in Washington's last nine Thursday games and 4-1 in the Cowboys' last five games as a home favorite.
The Cowboys finally got their offensive groove back last week, as Andy Dalton returned from a concussion to throw for 203 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-28 victory over the Vikings. That victory snapped a four-game losing streak and marked the first time Dallas had put up at least 30 points since nipping the Giants in Week 5.
Washington's offense is slightly more constant, scoring under 14 points just once this season despite plenty of quarterback issues. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between Dallas and Washington and has hit in five straight meetups at AT&T Stadium. Back the over as part of your 2020 Thanksgiving Day NFL picks.
NFL games on Thanksgiving Day: Schedule guide, game picks, fantasy football tips, odds, injuries and more.
The Week 12 NFL schedule begins with some great Thanksgiving Day football. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score picks.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk's Dave Bearman hand out helpful nuggets as well. It's all here to help get you ready for a loaded day of NFL football.
Let's get into the full Thanksgiving Day slate, who now includes just two games after the NFL moved Ravens-Steelers to Sunday.
Washington (3-7) at Cowboys (3-7)
4:30 p.m. ET Fox Matchup rating: 12.9 Spread : DAL -2.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: With first place in the NFC East on the line -- at least until Sunday -- which team will make fewer mistakes? The Cowboys have had at least one turnover in every game since the season opener and have 21 on the season, second most in the league. Washington has 17 giveaways, which is tied for fifth most. While the teams' 3-7 records indicate how poorly the season has gone, there is still a chance to make the playoffs by winning the division. Taking care of the ball matters even more when the margin for error is so small. -- Todd Archer.
Weekly NFL game expert picks.
Bold prediction: In three home games against Washington, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has averaged 113.3 yards and 1.3 touchdowns. So naturally, he will rush for 113 yards and a touchdown on Thursday. Washington's run defense has been inconsistent at best, partly because some of its linemen continue to use two-gap techniques in a one-gap system and then the linebackers don't attack often enough. Quarterback Alex Smith will keep Washington in this game, but when Elliott cracks 100 yards, Dallas is 23-4. -- John Keim.
Stat to know: Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin has 120 receptions in 24 career games. McLaurin needs 11 against Dallas to have the most through 25 games in Washington franchise history. The Ohio State product is currently third on the list behind Jordan Reed (130) and Gary Clark (122).
What to know for fantasy: Over the past three weeks, Washington's Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic are both top-10 running backs. See Week 12 rankings .
Betting nugget: Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its past nine Thanksgiving games. Read more .
Keim's pick: Cowboys 27, Washington 24 Archer's pick: Cowboys 27, Washington 17 FPI prediction: WSH, 54.8% (by an average of 1.7 points)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: In 1974, backup quarterback Clint Longley entered for an injured Roger Staubach with the Cowboys trailing Washington 16-3. Longley rallied Dallas to a victory, completing 11 passes for 203 yards. He capped off the comeback with a 50-yard touchdown pass to Drew Pearson with 28 seconds left, and the extra point kick gave the Cowboys a 24-23 victory.
Texans (3-7) at Lions (4-6)
12:30 p.m. ET CBS Matchup rating: 24.2 Spread : HOU -3 (51.5)
What to watch for: Is this Matt Patricia's final stand as Detroit's coach? After three double-digit losses in the Lions' past four games (and losing a 21-point lead in the team's one victory during that stretch), things are pretty dire for the third-year coach. How Detroit responds, knowing how hot its coach's seat is -- in its only nationally televised game of the season -- is the biggest storyline for either team in an otherwise forgettable matchup. -- Michael Rothstein.
Editor's Picks.
Week 12 NFL Power Rankings: 1-32 poll, plus what each team is thankful for.
Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Jaguars clinch No. 1 pick, Dolphins move into top five.
Bold prediction: Texans running back Duke Johnson will rush for a season-high 75 yards. The Texans' running game has struggled all season, and in his two games starting for the injured David Johnson, Duke Johnson has combined for 69 yards on 24 carries. But this week, the Texans face the 30th-ranked run defense in the NFL, with the Lions allowing an average of 139 rushing yards per game. -- Sarah Barshop.
Stat to know: Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson already has five games with at least 300 passing yards this season, tied for the most in a single season in his career (2018). Only Matt Schaub has had more such games in a single season in Texans history (nine in 2009 and seven in 2010).
What to know for fantasy: Duke Johnson's Week 11 production was underwhelming, but the fact that he got 76.9% of Houston's running back carries holds weight as the Texans face the league's worst defense against fantasy RBs this season. See Week 12 rankings .
Betting nugget: Detroit is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in its past eight Thanksgiving games (covered last season). Read more .
Barshop's pick: Texans 24, Lions 17 Rothstein's pick: Texans 31, Lions 17 FPI prediction: HOU, 56.1% (by an average of 2.1 points)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: The Texans and Lions met on Thanksgiving in 2012 in a game remembered for some controversy. Texans running back Justin Forsett scored an 81-yard rushing touchdown despite replays showing multiple Lions players tackling him and his knee and elbow both touching the ground near midfield. But a challenge flag from Detroit coach Jim Schwartz negated the automatic booth review of the scoring play, and the Texans went on to win 34-31 on an overtime field goal from Shayne Graham.
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