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   | Martedi 20 Luglio 2021 - 04:59
ufc fight for the troops betting odds:
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п»їUFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Timur Valiev vs Martin Day.
The UFC has packed up Fight Island and moved the show back to their home of Las Vegas. For how long, though? I am hearing that it will be Summertime before they get back out to Fight Island.
For betting purposes, this means a lot of frustration. It sure seems like many of the fights that are getting pulled from the card for various reasons are the ones with the most betting value. This happens in Vegas almost every week there is a show.
Whether there is something fishy going on or not, it is far above any of our pay grades so we have to focus on the opportunities we do have.
One of those is potentially with Timur Valiev here against Hawaii’s Martin Day. Yes, the betting line is wide but I think we can target a method of victory prop or two that have some solid value.
Timur is a very very good prospect for the UFC and they have held off on giving him a step up in competition just yet. He was thiiiiis close to having one fight and one first round finish inside the Octagon.
Where would his betting odds be if this was the case?
Heck, where are they now? BetOnline has provided the lines for us today and as always. If I find a better line somewhere else, I will make a note of it.
If you think this betting line is expensive right now, then imagine if Timur would have got the 1st round win in his debut. They probably would have upped his level of competition anyway but I like him a lot here over Martin Day.
The Hawaiin, Day, has yet to have his hand raised inside of the Octagon and is only 8-5 as a professional now. He lost his debut with the promotion to Pingyuan Liu who has since lost two straight fights.
After that, he was looking good against Davey Grant before he got clipped and put away in the third round. Then, the scrappy Brazilian Anderson dos Santos took him down and submitted him inside of the first round.
Probably not but maybe he just prefers to strike. This preference, though, should be swerved by his coaches in this fight. He works under Mark Henry, Frankie Edgar’s longtime head coach out of New Jersey.
Edgar is, of course, fighting in the main event on Saturday against Cory Sandhagen and the betting odds mirror this fight! How crazy is that? The books are trying to bait people to bet on Frankie Edgar. I’m not biting but it is tempting…
Can Timur Valiev win a striking battle with Martin Day this Saturday in Las Vegas? Sure. I would favor him probably 67/33 but he has the ability to get this fight to the mat and either cruise to a decision win or send Martin Day off to free agency in style.
The Hawaiin Taekwondo fighter lost on his Dana White Contender Series fight back in 2017 but after rattling off a couple of wins, the company gave him another shot in 2018. That was the fight against Liu.
Then, he has three fights cancelled and doesn’t compete again until July of last year and then again in November. He is tailor made for Timur to take down and either submit or beat up. I think that is what we will see here.
Since the moneyline is too high, what do the method of victory props look like?
Here is one I really like.
But, of course. Valiev is a striker but so is Day and so was Trevin Jones. Valiev has an excellent head coach who game plans as well as anyone. I expect a grappling heavy game plan from Timur.
Will Day accept the loss and just hold on? I doubt it. He has a warrior spirit and he is also fighting for his job after losing his first three inside the Octagon. He knows Valiev is a very talented guy who is dangerous everywhere but he is also aware that his only chance is to allow himself to be quite vulnerable.
That is where he makes a mistake, likely giving up his back trying to stand up from the bottom and Valiev slides around the back and finishes the lion kill.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Betting Odds.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Odds & Analysis.
Date: Saturday, Feb. 6, 2021 TV-Time: ESPN/ESPN+, 8:00 p.m. ET Venue: UFC Apex Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.
Let’s have a look at this fight from a bettor’s perspective.
We got an 8-year age discrepancy between the fighters, but I don’t think that will play into this fight.
Alistair Overeem is a bit of a statistical outlier when it comes to age, as he seems to have entered his UFC career’s peak in his last five fights. If not for that controversial last-second KO to Rozenstruik, Overeem would be on a 5-fight win streak, 3 of those wins as an underdog.
Historically in the heavyweight division, the underdogs have cashed more often than in any other weight division, giving us some value on Overeem. Alistair has shown his ability to upset the bookies before.
Alexander Volkov tends to use his reach to pick his competition apart from the outside and has no problem going to a decision to do so. In the UFC, half of his wins have come via decision, which is quite irregular for a heavyweight.
I usually like fighters who are statistical outliers and use it to their advantage in order to win. However, whether it’s a lack of power or simply a matter of game-planning, Volkov’s tendency to drag fights to a decision will not do him well against Overeem. On the contrary.
At this point in his career, Alistair’s biggest weakness is facing someone who can blitz him early and shut his lights off before he can settle and get into his rhythm. Once he gets going, his veteran experience and knowledge of the game often earn him the win.
Since 2015, Overeem has gone past the first round 9 times and has won 7 of those times.
If Volkov wants a drawn-out fight that goes into the championship rounds, he is doing Alistair a favor. The superior grappling of вЂThe Demolition Man’ could very well be put on display if the fight goes the distance.
The value is on Alistair Overeem as the underdog in this matchup.
Overeem vs. Volkov Betting Odds.
Volkov remains a healthy -175 favorite over Overeem and we haven't seen much movement in this market after opening on January 13.
Overeem vs. Volkov Total Rounds.
While most betting shops are offering 1.5 Rounds for this heavyweight clash, BetMGM is providing three different options with adjusted money for the five-round fight.
The consensus feeling is that this fight won't make the championship rounds (4th, 5th) and should be over within 15 minutes.
Overeem vs. Volkov Betting Insights.
Age : Alexander Volkov is eight years younger than Alistair Overeem.
Experience : Since 2015, Overeem has won 7 out of 9 of his fights that have gone past round one.
Grappling : Overeem is the superior grappler in 3 of 4 statistical categories, only bested in takedown accuracy.
UFC Betting Odds History - Overeem vs. Volkov.
Alistair Overeem (Last 5)
Alexander Volkov (Last 5)
Overeem vs. Volkov Fight Breakdown and Pick.
The winner of this fight will be a step closer to a shot at the title.
While the scheduled bout between Ciryl Gane and Jairzinho Rozenstruik might determine who is the #1 ranked heavyweight, Overeem’s name recognition and -value will probably lead him to a title fight if he beats Volkov in impressive fashion. For Volkov, I see at least one or two more wins on top of Overeem if he wants a go at the champion.
Whoever can impose their gameplan on the other fighter will win this bout. Overeem will most likely look to grapple, whereas Volkov will look to keep the fight standing and finish Alistair. On the feet, Volkov has a higher striking differential than Overeem, but on the ground, вЂThe Demolition Man’ will definitely be able to have his way with the Russian, granted he gets the fight there.
The problem I see for Volkov is that he is the one that has to prevent something from happening.
Overeem probably won’t have an issue standing with Volkov, but the Russian will have a problem on the ground with the underdog. I feel Volkov needs to pull a first-round KO out of the hat to win here, and I don’t see that happening based on the fact that he’s only managed one first-round KO in the last 6 years, and it wasn’t even in the UFC.
My early lean has me going with Overeem to cash as the underdog against Volkov.
UFC Fight Night - Co-Main Event Breakdown.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar.
The co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov features a classic veteran vs. up-and-comer matchup. Frankie Edgar, 39, made his UFC bantamweight debut in his last fight, earning an impressive underdog win over #8 ranked Pedro Munhoz. Edgar is 2-3 in his last 5.
On the other side of the cage, we’ve got 135-pound striking prospect Cory Sandhagen, who is coming off a second-round KO win over hard-hitting striker Marlon Moraes. Standing 5’1’’ tall, Sandhagen is unusually tall for the UFC’s bantamweight division, and will tower over the 5’6’’ Edgar.
A win over Edgar sets up Sandhagen for a bout against the winner of Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling, while a win over Sandhagen throws Frankie Edgar into the title mix in his new weight division.
Join me in breaking down the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov, between Cory Sandhagen and Frankie Edgar.
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Betting Odds.
As expected, Sandhagen is a very large favorite over Edgar who could likely get underdog support from casual UFC bettors just based on his name.
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Betting Analysis.
The betting line being this wide tells me that bookies and bettors believe that Edgar is on his way out, and I don’t really disagree with that. Edgar is 39 years old and peaked back in 2010 when he captured and defended the lightweight title. Problem is, we are in 2021 now, and I feel like Edgar’s skill set hasn’t evolved since the 2010 era of UFC fighting.
Big reach and height advantages for Sandhagen, along with one of the highest striking differentials in the UFC today makes вЂSandman’ the rightful favorite.
My only concern is Sandhagen’s lacklustre takedown defense. His mindset seems to be that he has no problem going to the ground because he believes in his ability to scramble back to his feet. That didn’t work well for him against Sterling, however, Edgar is not the same submission wiz, but can still grind out a lay-and-pray decision if Sandhagen is not careful.
Still, I see very few indications that Edgar is a valuable bet, and even at -400 I honestly believe the value is on the 11-year younger fighter, but not H2H. For value, I recommend looking at the Sandhagen by decision lines when they open.
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Betting Insights.
Age : Cory Sandhagen is 11 years younger than Frankie Edgar. In matchups with an 11-year gap, the youngster wins 7 out of 10 times.
Striking Wiz : Sandhagen has one of the highest active striking differentials in the UFC, meaning that he dishes out significantly more strikes compared to what he absorbs.
UFC Betting Odds History - Sandhagen vs. Edgar.
Cory Sandhagen (Last 5)
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer (L) Cory Sandhagen -111 vs. Aljamain Sterling -111.
Frankie Edgar (Last 5)
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Fight Breakdown and Pick.
While it's hard not to root for Edgar as the veteran he is, I can’t see him getting the W over Sandhagen on February 6th.
While lackluster on paper, Sandhagen’s takedown defense of 30% does not account for times he’s gotten back to his feet. Edgar can not win this fight by striking with Sandhagen. In order to win on the scorecards, Edgar would need control time upwards of 2.30 minutes in at least 3 of the 5 scheduled rounds.
Frankie could very well get the better of Sandhagen early on, but as the fight goes on I foresee panic wrestling from вЂThe Answer’, and Sandhagen pulling ahead on the scorecards, utilizing his large striking toolbox.
I’m predicting that Sandhagen gets his hand raised against Frankie Edgar, in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov, on February 6th.
UFC Fight Night (UFC Vegas 18) Fight Card.
Along with the two main events, there are currently nine other fights on tap for the UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Listed below are the "opening odds" on those fights per the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Check out these numbers, then the updated odds to see where the money is going.
Odds & Card Subject to Change - Updated 2.4.21.
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