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п»їHow to Bet the 2020 US Presidential Elections.
Betting the 2020 US Presidential Election.
How about turning that knowledge into money and wagering a few bucks on your winning candidate, be it Republican President Donald Trump or Democratic Party challenger Joe Biden? If you’ve thought about wagering on the election but don’t know where to start, we’re here to give you a helping hand. It’s not that complicated.
You could always bet with your blowhard brother-in-law, but he probably wouldn’t pay up anyway – and besides, what’s the fun in that? Much better to dip your toes into the world of legal sports betting, where the payoff on a win is immediate and guaranteed – even if the house gives your winnings a little haircut (usually 10 percent) in what’s known as the vig. With all that in mind, let talk about politics and betting.
US Election Odds.
Odds via Bet365 International Property (Updated Nov 3rd at 2:05 PM EST)
Right now, the polls show Joe Biden with a rather significant national lead, but if you know anything about U.S. presidential elections you know that that isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. After all, Hillary Clinton got nearly three million more votes than Trump four years ago, but Trump still wound up with a hefty 304-227 edge when the state electoral votes were tabulated.
We mentioned that the election is more state-by-state guerrilla warfare than a national battle, and there are 50 options for you if you want to wager on your candidate winning a particular state. Again, though, be aware that the payoff is higher when you bet on the underdog. Also, this isn’t the NFL. The candidate leading the polls doesn’t always win. Just ask Gerald Ford.
Trump has a stronghold in states like Alabama and Mississippi, the places that have welcomed him with open arms when he’s show face at NCAA College Football games. However, the more populated states are heavily left-leaning for Biden. Atleast according to the oddsmakers.
Election Odds by State.
As Al Gore (2000) and Hillary Clinton (2016) are aware, in the United States you can somehow get more votes than your opponent and still lose. It’s a quirk that goes back to the late 1700s and the framing of the Constitution and small states wanting to not get overlooked, and it persists to this day.
So if you want to wager on which candidate or party simply gets the most votes (and not necessarily which one wins), there’s that option. Checking Bet365, you’ll note that the Democrats are a significant favorite to win the popular vote.
Odds to Win Popular Vote.
Oddsmakers are no doubt very aware of the fact that in the last seven presidential elections, the Democratic Party candidate has received the most votes six times (2004, George Bush over John Kerry, being the only exception).
There you go. You just need to find a place to take your wager, fund your account, and pick a winner. If you like to hedge your bets, maybe you can take the sting out by betting on the person you don’t want to win the election. If your guy losses, at least you’ll have a ticket to cash. Remember, the money you win is always better than the money you earn.
A presidential odds couple.
It’s the ultimate inside-the-Beltway fantasy, a political tease too titillating to surrender, because it ends with the prospect of two women running against one another for president of the United States in 2008.
12:00 AM, Nov. 27, 2002 For The Record Los Angeles Times Wednesday November 27, 2002 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 2 ..CF: Y 10 inches; 369 words Type of Material: Correction U.S. senator -- In a story in Tuesday’s Calendar section about the possibility of Hillary Clinton running against Condoleezza Rice for president in 2008, the last name of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison was misspelled as Hutchinson.
Or, in some scripts, it ends with the clash of two dynasties, a titanic grudge match that will determine the most powerful family in the most powerful nation on the planet.
Plot too tired, movie been done?
Well maybe in Hollywood, but in Washington, fantasy politics is all the buzz. Now that the midterm elections are history (except in Louisiana, where campaign-o-holics have managed to drag out their elections into the Christmas shopping season), politicos are only too happy to salivate over the contests to come. Like rotisserie baseball, presidential scenario-spinning requires a few leaps of faith and the usual creative mind. After that, it’s all delicious speculation.
Scenario One: Democrats rally around Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) as their presidential candidate in 2008, after she is reelected in a roar from New York in 2006.
President Bush attempts to preempt Hillary’s expected star-power run with a trump card of his own, naming national security advisor Condoleezza Rice as his vice presidential running mate in 2004.
Bush-Rice triumphs at the polls, making Rice the first woman and the first African American to be vice president. Then in 2008, it’s Hillary vs. Condi.
“The Shakespearean scenario,” said Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster in California. “A former first lady running against the first brother with two former presidents in the wings, neither particularly old or disheveled. And then there’d be Barbara Bush off in the corner somewhere with a voodoo doll.”
Groan if you must, but political junkies love this stuff. They have already handicapped the odds, and, depending on who is talking, Hillary’s run is a sure bet and Condi’s is a longshot.
President Bush seemed to dash hopes for the first scenario. “Should I decide to run,” he intoned recently during a press conference, “Vice President Cheney will be my running mate.”
But this being Washington no one believed him. Cheney’s health problems (he has had four heart attacks starting at age 37, a quadruple heart bypass operation and now wears an implant), only fuel the speculation.
And Tony Blankley, editorial page editor of the conservative Washington Times, is convinced that Republican Party elders will force Cheney off the ticket.
“Cheney will want to stay on and Bush will want him to stay,” he explained. “But national Republicans will implore Bush to put on the ticket somebody who can be the standard bearer in 2008. To give up that advantage would be painful.”
Blankley admits that Bush will resist the pressure. And Cheney himself is perhaps the first vice president in history who actually likes his job, which John Nance Garner, FDR’s first veep, once likened to a bucket of warm spit (actually he said something a bit more graphic).
Still, the scenario beckons.
“I’m betting on a Bush-Rice ticket in 2004,” said William Kristol, editor of the conservative Weekly Standard, who has been pushing the idea since March. “Bush is a bit of a gambler politically.”
To Kristol and other Republican cheerleaders, a Rice candidacy is enticing because it offers promise of crossover appeal to black voters who would otherwise vote Democratic. No one is really sure if this will work -- it did not seem to help Democrats win more Jewish votes than usual when Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) was Al Gore’s vice presidential candidate in 2000 -- but pundits who play the fantasy game love to toss this one around.
“It depends on the issue mix,” said Kristol.
“Generally black conservatives in the past have not been able to attract black Democratic votes. It suggests that ideology really is more important than race identity.”
Maybe, but some Democrats worry that Hillary Clinton’s high negatives and a Condi Rice candidacy bathed in the aura of historic destiny could combine to give Republicans the edge.
“I don’t like that matchup,” said Jennifer Laszlo Mizrahi, a Democratic pollster. “We lose.”
Pollster John Zogby thinks the Condi-Hillary matchup is “a stroke of genius” because it removes any voter unease about voting for a woman as commander in chief.
Hillary Clinton’s negatives, he calculates, are irrelevant, since she has mastered the art of winning even though one-third of voters “hate her guts.” And Rice could pull in enough blacks, Zogby thinks, to embarrass the Democrats.
“She doesn’t have to bring too many,” he said. “Now Republicans have about 10%. She could probably build that into 18% to 20%, just enough to embarrass the Democrats. The Democrats can’t win without 90% of the black vote.”
Geraldine Ferraro, a former Democratic congresswoman from New York, was the first woman tapped to be a vice presidential candidate. Actually, so far she’s the only woman nominated on a major party ticket.
She likes all the talk of an all-female contest. But she thinks a more likely Republican opponent for Hillary Clinton is Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson.
“If Kay Bailey Hutchinson weren’t from Texas [where Bush already had an electoral lock], she would have been the vice presidential nominee in 2000,” said Ferraro, who heads a New York-based management consulting firm. “I don’t agree with her on the issues, but she’s done a credible job as senator, representing her party, precisely the type of person who should run.”
Others mention newly elected Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) who ran for president in 2000 and whose husband ran, in 1996, against Bill Clinton. Another grudge match?
If you poll the U.S. Senate on any given day, you will find 99 senators, give or take one, who thinks he or she is presidential timber.
But in the last 100 years, far more presidents have come from governor’s offices than the U.S. Senate. Voters may be more likely to look to a governor for executive leadership and managerial muscle.
But those who like to war-game presidential races think a woman commander in chief can balance any voter unease by having a male vice president.
Asked what qualities Rice or Clinton should look for in a running mate, Maslin, who polls for Gov. Gray Davis, said, “A man.”
Women’s advocates are somewhat cheered by a new crop of female governors now in the pipeline toward the presidency whose performance could blunt voter resistance to women in high office. Several pointed out there are now more female governors -- six (not counting Puerto Rico’s) -- than chief executives of Fortune 500 firms.
Ann Lewis, a friend and supporter of Hillary Clinton’s, likes the chatter.
“Anytime we start discussing scenarios, we’re helping women,” said Lewis, who chairs the Democratic National Committee’s elect-women-to-office campaign. “Making it imaginable is a big step to making it real.”
Betting on the Next Presidential Election.
If you're a sports fan, and you follow the betting odds, you've no doubt been amazed at how close the final score is to the point spread put up by the odds-makers. Of course there are exceptions (including a couple of last weekend's NFL playoff games) but on balance the ability of the odds-makers to pick not only the winners but by the correct margins is uncanny! So, enjoy the following predictions from Ireland's biggest and most successful bookmaker, Paddy Power.
Democratic Presidential Nominee.
Applies to the candidate chosen at the Democratic National Convention in 2012 to run as the Democratic Candidate for President in the 2012 US Presidential Election.
Barack Obama 1/7 Hillary Clinton 6/1 Joe Biden 10/1 Evan Bayh 25/1 John Edwards 40/1 Al Gore 40/1 Bill Richardson 50/1 John Kerry 66/1 Kathleen Sebelius 66/1 Janet Napolitano 80/1 Wesley Clark 100/1 Caroline Kennedy 100/1 Mark Warner 100/1 Tom Daschle 100/1 Chris Dodd 150/1 Oprah 500/1.
Republican Presidential Nominee.
Applies to the candidate chosen at the Republican National Convention in 2012 to run as the Republican Candidate for President in the 2012 US Presidential Election.
Mitt Romney 3/1 Haley Barbour 4/1 Newt Gingrich 5/1 Sarah Palin 5/1 John Boehner 8/1 Mike Huckabee 10/1 Tim Pawlenty 10/1 Bobby Jindal 12/1 Fred Thompson 16/1 Chuck Hagel 18/1 David Petraeus 20/1 Jeb Bush 20/1 Rudolph Giuliani 20/1 Chuck Baldwin 20/1 Lindsey Graham 20/1 Tom Ridge 25/1 Ron Paul 25/1 John McCain 33/1 Condoleezza Rice 33/1 George Allen 33/1 John Ensign 33/1 George Pataki 40/1 Dick Cheney 100/1 Laura Bush 500/1.
Sarah Palin Gaffe Odds.
Following the news that former Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin is set to become a regular contributor at Fox News, bookmaking outfit Paddy Power has already taken numerous bets on how long the gaffe-prone Alaskan governor will remain in Rupert Murdoch's employ.
Early betting points toward Sarah Palin being dropped by the global news broadcaster between September and December 2010 with Paddy Power offering odds of 10/11. Slightly longer odds of 11/10 are available on the 45 year-old politician keeping her broadcasting role at Fox News into 2011.
Paddy Power is also taking bets on which minority group the broadcasting newbie will first offend in her media role. Gay and Lesbian groups top the bookies shortlist at odds of 4/1 followed by Muslims and African Americans both at 6/1.
Paddy Power says "Where Sarah Palin goes controversy is generally not too far behind so we'll obviously be following her new career path with great interest"
When will Sarah Palin lose her Fox News position?
8/1 Before 01 September 2010 10/11 Between 01 September 2010 and 31 December 2010 11/10 After 01 January 2011.
First Minority Group Sarah Palin offends.
4/1 Gay/Lesbian/Bi-sexual 6/1 African American 6/1 Muslims 8/1 Single parents 10/1 Senior Citizens 10/1 The Poor 12/1 Arab Americans 14/1 Jews 16/1 Native American 16/1 Third world countries 18/1 Christians 20/1 Irish 25/1 Jehovah's Witness.
Public Gives Clinton Best Odds of Being Elected President.
More than 8 in 10 say she has excellent or good chance of being elected.
PRINCETON , NJ -- In Americans’ judgment, Sen. Hillary Clinton has the best odds of all the main contenders for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination of winning the general election next November. The percentage rating her chances of being elected as excellent or good are significantly higher than for any other candidate, and on a comparative basis, Americans say she has a better chance of being elected than Sen. Barack Obama, former Sen. John Edwards, and even former Vice President Al Gore. Democrats give Clinton better odds of winning than do Republicans and independents, but even a majority of Republicans believe she has a good chance of being elected and say she has a better chance than any of her major competitors.
These findings are based on the latest Gallup Panel survey, which was conducted Oct. 25-28. Clinton’s electability was a significant issue in an Oct. 30 debate involving the Democratic presidential candidates. It is unclear to what extent that debate and the ensuing media coverage of it might affect Americans’ views on the matter, but even before the debate it was clear that Americans widely believed Clinton to be a viable presidential candidate.
The poll asked Americans whether each of the top five announced Democratic candidates had an excellent, good, slim, or no chance of being elected president in 2008. The ordering of the candidates’ perceived electability generally follows their rank order in Gallup’s Democratic nomination trial heats -- Clinton is the clear leader, with Obama second and Edwards third.
Edwards falls just short of the 50% mark on this measure, and only about 1 in 10 Americans believe that Gov. Bill Richardson or Sen. Joe Biden have better than a slim chance of being elected.
Perceived Chances of Democratic Candidates Being Elected President, Among All Americans.
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