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nate silver and sports betting:
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п»їThe Homa Files.
Nate Silver trashes “prediction markets”…
He was for them before he was against them. =============
You’ve probably heard of Nate Silver … a self-identified prediction guru.
In 2012, he wrote a book called “The Signal & the Noise – why many predictions fail … but some don’t”.
In the book, Silver made references to prediction markets, e.g. the betting books and online sites such as Predict It.
One might expect these markets to improve predictions for the simple reason that they force people to put their money where their mouth is, and create an incentive for their forecasts to be accurate.
I buy that logic, which is why I oft reference what the prediction markets are saying about this year’s election.
Noteworthy: the left-leaning Silver, changed his position on prediction markets when Trump closed the odds gap against Biden…
He now says that prediction markets are “dumb” … the province to “techbros and financwbros”.
Since Silver predicted on election day 2016 that Hillary had a 99% chance of winning, his tweets got some predictable pushback.
Here’s my favorite:
Nate, chill out “pollbro” and stop pretending like there is some profound, abstruse and complex science involved here – there isn’t – and that only certified grand druids of polling have a right to opine on the future. If anything, you are the one who should shut up, instead of trying to “look smart” by bashing (folks who follow the prediction markets). Bettors who are right get rewarded. Those who are wrong lose the pot. You, on the other hand, were hopelessly wrong in 2016 and yet here you are pretending you have some arcane “technical and domain expertise.” It appears that despite his catastrophic track record from 2016, You still believes that you somehow hold a monopoly on forecasting and “analyzing” polls. We are shocked that people still care and listen to what you have to say. Source.
For the record, Silver currently posts Biden as a 71-28 favorite….
============= P.S. Now that the betting markets have turned back in Biden’s favor (see chart above), I wonder if Silver will continue to diss them. I’m betting the under on that one.
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2 Responses to “Nate Silver trashes “prediction markets”…”
Todd Says: September 16, 2020 at 11:37 pm Reply.
A Beginner’s Guide to Understanding Sports Betting.
Before May 14, 2018, all sports betting outside of the state of Nevada had been illegal. The explosion of betting markets since then has been nothing short of remarkable.
Americans love to gamble. In 2016, we spent over 100 billion dollars on all types of gambling, from horse races to nickel slots . The online betting market handles billions of dollars on a monthly basis.
Although this is all exciting and we want in, it can be easy to get lost with all the terms getting thrown around. Read ahead for our crash course in understanding sports betting and how to get started.
Our Fascination With Sports Betting.
The next time someone tries to give you an attitude about your betting, politely remind them that you are simply taking part in an ancient tradition.
That’s right. We know the Ancient Greeks were betting on sports and other competitions more than 2,000 years ago. Later, the Romans were placing bets on gladiator fights.
Over the years, different rulers have tried to make it illegal. Others realized that if you can’t beat them you should join and created legal gambling institutions.
From Underground to Mainstream.
Sports betting continued to thrive across the world. Betting on horse races became very popular in England and moved to the United States .
There was a certain posh about going to the tracks. It was something that brought communities together and provided lots of entertainment.
Of course, there was no shortage of people trying to profit off of it.
The Emergence of Bookies.
Bookmakers or bookies as most people call them, accept bets and pays them off. During different periods of history, bookmaking has been banned in various countries.
Depending on the place, bookies can work out in the open. They are a common site at casinos and horse tracks.
However, there was a time when they had to operate in the shadows to avoid trouble with the law and the IRS . Otherwise, Americans often placed bets through bookies overseas in places like the Caribbean and Costa Rica , where they could operate legally.
Understanding Sports Betting.
If you have been around people talking about sports betting, you’ve certainly heard a bunch of funny words getting thrown around that may have gone over your head.
Sports betting has its own culture and, with that, comes its own language.
Short for the underdog, the dog is the team or player that is less likely to win. However, that doesn’t mean they always lose.
Betting on the dog sets you up to win big if you can correctly predict an upset.
Who doesn’t love a great underdog story?
Odds On Favorite.
This is basically the opposite of the dog. The favorite is the team that projected to win. Generally speaking, betting on the favorite is safer but the cashout is smaller.
Some people always bet on the favorite regardless. However, the favorite isn’t guaranteed to win so don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Point Spread.
This is an important concept called spread betting. You simply pick a winner of a certain game but keeping in mind that the underdog will have a certain advantage.
Parlay.
A parlay is when you bet on two or more consecutive games. In a three-team parlay, for example, all three teams that you selected must win.
This is an extremely exciting way to play. Imagine the excitement as your teams keep winning and you get ever closer to hitting that big score.
Over/Under.
You can bet on more than the outcome of a game in terms of winning or losing. You can also try to guess the total combined score of both teams.
You can be on whether the combined score will be greater and or less than a certain number.
For example, if the over/under for football game is 25 and you pick вЂunder’. You are hoping that it is a relatively low scoring game, without worry about who wins.
How To Get Involved.
It’s never too late to get involved with sports betting. Since it has become legalized, there are tons of options in the sports betting market depending on what suits you.
You can hit an online betting market if you’re the type who prefers staying at home. Gone are the days when it was necessary to meet up with your friendly neighborhood bookie at Waffle House to place your bets and get paid.
Don’t feel pressured to make big bets on things you don’t really understand. Take your time with some smaller bets to get a feel for how it works.
How Much Many Can I Make?
Truly, there is no limit to how much money you can make off sports betting . However, you need to bet more to make more.
In large part, it depends on your bankroll and how much you willing to bet. However, there are plenty of people who make a living on sports betting . However, always remember that you shouldn’t bet more than you can afford to lose.
Some people do it for fun and some people make hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Becoming a Bookie.
It doesn’t stop there. You can become a bookie and help others place bets . No, you don’t have to be a wiseguy or wear a trench coat.
The fact is, becoming a bookmaker is a surefire way to make money. The more people you bring in, the more you get paid regardless of the outcomes of their bets.
Check out this article to learn you can become a bookmaker . Work on your own time and as much or as little as you want.
Getting the Most out of Sports Betting.
Sports betting adds a massive degree of emotion and excitement to any competition, even if its division III college volleyball .
And of course, there is a lot of money to be made. However, understanding sports betting is crucial in order to get the most out of it.
3 Good Books About Starting Out.
When you start out better, you should dive into some books for strategies and more. It’ll help you in the long run. We’ve gathered our favorite titles together.
In 2019, sports bettors wagered $150 billion in 2019, according to Morningstar. That figure is set to surge in the future as more states legalize gambling and establish sportsbooks.
But the world of sports betting has its own lingo that people can find intimidating. Also, although most people are betting for entertainment, no one wants to waste their money on something they don’t fully understand.
However, there are many books out there that can help shed some light on sports betting. If you are a novice, these books will help you gain invaluable basic knowledge. And if you have the experience, these titles could help fine-tune your betting prowess.
In the following article, we’ll suggest three excellent books on sports betting that will not only educate but entertain.
1) вЂSharp Sports Betting’ Leads Our Books.
This book is considered by many as the “Bettor’s Bible.” The book is authored by Stanford Wong, a pioneer in gambling publications. The first work he authored, “Professional Blackjack,” is also considered a classic.
Wong’s legendary prowess on the blackjack tables and his gambling knowledge has allowed him to create a lucrative cottage industry.
Wong, born in Georgia in 1943, was fascinated by games as a child. In several interviews, Wong took to blackjack and counting cards after reading Ed Thorpe’s “Beat the Dealer.” He was so successful at the game that legend has it that at age 21, he was able to start putting himself through school with his winnings.
“Sharp Sports Betting” came about after Wong realized that there were no credible books on the topic out there. His book stays away from evaluating teams and players and sticks to the math involved to win at sports betting.
Wong covers the basics in clear language: money lines, spreads, parlays, and teasers. He also spends a good amount of time exploring Poisson distribution — or the probability of X-number of events happening in a fixed interval. The charts and statistical analysis Wong offers is a must-read.
2) вЂFixed-Odds Sports Betting’
Joseph Buchdal is a bettor extraordinaire with a passion for sportsbook and soccer, or football as they call in his home in the United Kingdom. He’s a contributor to advise sites and has written several other betting books.
Buchdal’s book “fixed-Odds Sports Betting” is considered one of the best books about gambling. It holds wit and wisdom for the newbie and the experienced bettor alike . He emphasizes the practice of value betting, where you need to isolate that thing that is likely to happen, but oddsmakers are not favoring it to happen.
He tells how to isolate factors to maximize value betting strategies and hopefully come out ahead over time in his book.
3) вЂThe Signal and the Noise’
Silver developed his forecasting prowess by calculating reams of baseball statistics over long airplane flights. His Pecota system was then successfully used to predict the first Obama election in all 50 states.
His clear, explanatory writing illuminates many mathematical, political, and cultural touchstones, which gives the reader a larger sense of the forecasting world.
Get In the Game.
While we picked three books to get your sports betting reading list started, there are hundreds of titles to choose from. Wong’s pioneering idea to explore the world of betting in ways that make sense to the novice and hardened better alike has sparked a major industry of sports betting publications.
With all that is out there to read, you are sure to find a book that suits your interests.
Top 11 Books about Sports Betting You Need To Read.
You shouldn’t be surprised to realize that your local library has an entire row dedicated to sports betting books. When you add all these to the hundreds of free-advice given inform of web content, you will realize that you have endless valuable resources on the internet. That’s why this post shall discuss the Top 10 books about sports betting you need to read.
1. Sharp Sports Betting – Stanford Wong.
This is a must-read for people who love sports betting. In fact, some bettors consider this book to be the “betting bible.” It’s very easy to scan through its chapters—thanks to its glossary. The book focuses solely on NFL football, although you can apply its lessons to other markets. Sharp Sports Betting was first written in 2001, but there have been a few revisions since then.
2. Gambling Wizards—Conversations with the World’s Greatest Gamblers – Richard Munchkin.
The author of this book—Richard Munchkin, is one of the greatest authors of sports betting. Before writing the book, Richard worked as a TV & film producer, blackjack dealer, and Vegas pit boss. Gambling Wizards is his greatest contribution so far.
Gambling Wizards is a great and interesting read for both sports bettors and non-bettors. The open discussions in the book are both entertaining and educational.
3. Fixed-Odds Sports Betting – Joseph Buchdal.
Fixed Odds Sports Betting targets serious sports bettors only. If you are serious about sports betting, then this book is a must-own. This book will assist you to make a serious analysis of your betting strategies, learn how to find values in different sports markets, as well as improve the power of your bankroll.
You should always make sure that you read a few pages of this book every day if you want to sharpen your sports betting skills.
4. Weighing the Odds In Sports Betting – King Yao.
This book resembles the Sharp Sports Betting that we highlighted above. However, the author has added more content for the readers compared to Wong. This is a must-read book, especially for people with interest in the football and baseball markets.
5. The Signal and the Noisemaker – Nate Silver.
This book focuses more on making predictions. Most sports bettors consider this book to be their greatest companion when it comes to shedding more light on the sports markets. The content will give you a deeper understanding of the concepts of risk and probability. Nate Silver constantly stresses that our predictive liabilities are limited, despite our access to limitless raw data.
6. Guide to Sports Betting – Ian Hudson.
The main intention of this book’s author is to give you a complete guide to sports betting, especially if you are new to betting on sporting events. Hudson’s aim is to teach those new in sports betting how to make steady profits when betting on sports. This book will give tips on developing the best strategies to assist you in succeeding in sports betting.
7. Scorecasting – L. Jon Wertheim and Tobias J. Moskowitz.
Scorecasting: The Hidden Influenced behind How Sports are Played and Games are Won is a book that tries to reverse the commonly cherished clichГ©s about sports. This book will assist you to understand the unseen forces that determine how baseball, football, hockey, and basketball are played and won or lost.
8. Mathematics in Games, Sports, and Gambling – Ronald J. Gould.
In this book, Ronald J. Gould describes how statistics, elementary discrete mathematics, and probability are applied in sports, gambling, and gaming situations. The book uses several questions, problems, and examples to explain how mathematical theory is applied in different real-life games.
9. Sports Betting: Profiting from Point Spreads – Daniel Fabrizio and Joseph Hunter.
This is an amazing book that gives you the tactics and strategies that convert the sports betting industry into a business activity. In this book, you will realize that the authors use “sports investors” rather than “sports bettor” since they’ve taken a professional view of the sports industry.
10. No Easy Money: A Gamblers Diary – Dave Nevison.
In this book, the author gives an account of his life on betting at Britain’s top racetracks, and the adventures that come with it. His primary mission was to make GBP 1 million, and he has explained about the bets he has placed, their progress, as well as the challenges that come with them.
11. Sports Arbitrage: Riskless Investment – George Lynam.
Sports arbitrate gives you the both the theory and practice of sports betting. Moreover, it gives you more examples to show how it’s possible for one to generate a considerable income—even from small starting amount. The most interesting thing about this book is that it’s for both beginners and professionals.
Bottom Line.
If you need a good infusion of betting strategy or tips that will assist you to win more money, count on any of the above sports betting books. Although the list is not complete, it’s a good place for anyone to start. These books will sharpen your betting skills and bring more money to your pockets.
538’s Nate Silver Fires Back And Blasts Darren Rovell For вЂCriticizing’ His Election Forecast Model.
Just like everyone on election day 538 political prognosticator Nate Silver is a bit on edge.
On Tuesday morning the Action Network’s Darren Rovell tweeted out the final Five Thirty-Eight forecast for both the 2016 election and the 2020 election and pointed out how “they were wrong” four years ago.
Silver took offense to Rovell’s tweet and immediately fired back.
Darren, as someone who covers betting markets for a living, you have to be pretty fucking stupid to criticize a forecast than was very long on Trump relative to markets. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020.
Darren went on to delete his tweet and claimed he wasn’t criticizing 538’s prediction model but Silver wasn’t having it.
I *am* criticizing, conversely. It was a disqualifyingly stupid tweet. Have a good day. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020.
The Internet was happy to see Rovell get dunked on by Silver.
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https://www.wulfbecker.de/fx602p-sim/?error_checker=captcha&author_spam=WonEndarce&email_spam=db0738473%40gmail.com&url_spam=https%3A%2F%2Fsure-fixedmatch.com&comment_spam=%3Ca+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fcutt.ly%2FtgUsZ9U%3E%3Cimg+src%3D%5C%22https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2FrbgFnyV%2Ffixed-matches.jpg%5C%22%3E%3C%2Fa%3E++%3Ca+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F3dWKdMz%3E%3Cimg+src%3D%5C%22https%3A%2F%2Fi.ibb.co%2FLv6390Z%2Fjoin-button.png%5C%22%3E%3C%2Fa%3E+++%D0%BF%C2%BB%D1%97Sports+betting+Essays.Sports+Betting+in+the+United+States.Sport+betting+is+and+has+been+illegal+in+46+states+since+the+early+1900%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2s.+Since+sports+betting+is+illegal+in+most+states+in+the+United+States+even+gambling+is+only+legal+in+Nevada%2C+Hot+Springs+Arkansas%2C+and+on+the+water+in+Mississippi.+Reports+show+the+%D0%B2%D0%82%C2%98gaming+community%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2+predicts+sports+betting+becoming+legal+in+14+states+%3C%3E%D0%82%C2%A6%5DSports+Betting+and+Threateness+the+Professional+Sports.During+the+World+Series+of+1919%2C+when+the+Cincinnati+Reds+were+against+the+Chicago+White+Soxs%2C+eight+members+of+the+Chicago+White+Sox+team+were+accused+of+intentionally+losing+the+1919+World+Series+against+the+Cincinnati+Reds+in+exchange+for+money.+This+was+known+as+The+Black+Sox+Scandal%2C+which+was+a+Major+League+Baseball+%3C%3E%D0%82%C2%A6%5DOur+editors+will+help+you+fix+any+mistakes+and+get+an+A%2B%21Should+Sports+Betting+be+Legal+Everywhere.From+the+excitement+of+winning+a+small+bet+among+friends+to+exhilaration+of+winning+big+on+a+gambling+site.+Betting+and+specifically+sports+betting+is+an+international+industry+and+is+an+industry+making+400+billion+dollars+a+year+worldwide+according+to+Statista+%28Fuller%29.+Sports+betting+is+a+way+to+enhance+our+enjoyment+to+our+favorite+%3C%3E%D0%82%C2%A6%5DAbout+Sports+Betting.My+dad+and+I+both+show+a+love+for+sports.+We+love+many+sports+but+we+both+deeply+enjoy+baseball.+Baseball+can+be+a+very+controversial+topic%2C+especially+in+the+year+1919.+Should+the+United+States+legalize+sports+betting%3F+I+believe+legalized+sports+threatens+the+integrity+of+amatuer+and+professional+sports.+It+will+also+increase+%3C%3E%D0%82%C2%A6%5DIssues+with+Sports+Betting+in+the+United+States.Sports+betting+throughout+many+parts+of+the+world+is+legal+and+deemed+an+integral+part+of+the+sporting+scene+in+those+countries.+These+countries+include+Great+Britain%2C+Australia%2C+Mexico%2C+South+Africa%2C+Spain+and+many+more+%28ESPN+staff%2C+2018%29.+The+laws+allow+for+betting+on+any+sport%2C+both+within+these+countries+and+internationally+including+American+sport.+%3C%3E%D0%82%C2%A6%5DSports+Betting+in+Today+Society.Betting+on+sports+can+happen+at+any+time+and+do+a+lot+not+just+for+in+person+but+also+the+government.+But+betting+is+also+just+like+gambling%2C+but+you+also+must+have+peer+luck.+Because+it+can+either+go+your+way+or+it+will+not.+But+betting+on+sports+is+harder+because+you+must+%3C%3E%D0%82%C2%A6%5DSports+Betting+Excel+Template.Utilizing+sports+betting+excel+template+for+Excel+worksheets+can+assist+increase+performance+in+your+business.+When+you+use+an+sports+betting+excel+template+%2C+you+can+make+and+personalize+your+custom+evaluation+in+mins.+You+can+share+and+release+your+customized+analysis+with+others+within+your+firm.+Use+sports+betting+excel+template+to+produce%3A+Pipe+Monitoring.+Pipe+administration+allows+you+to+develop+a+control+panel+that+makes+it+easy+to+recognize+as+well+as+track+the+stages+of+a+pipe.+Use+sports+betting+excel+template+to+produce%3A+Sales+projecting.+Leadscoring.1+Whats+is+sports+betting+excel+template+2+Sports+Betting+Excel+Template+%7C+6+Tracking+Spreadsheet+Template+Excel+Excel+Templates+3+Sports+Betting+Excel+Template+%7C+Fully+Auto+Excel+Spreadsheet+Betting+Bot+For+Bet+Angel+4+Sports+Betting+Excel+Template+%7C+Bet+Tracker+Excel+Spreadsheet+For+Your+Sports+Betting+5+Type+of+sports+betting+excel+template+6+Sports+Betting+Excel+Template+%7C+Sports+Betting+Strategy+Spreadsheet+Db+Excel+7+%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%80%9Csports+betting+excel+template+worksheets+offers+your+Excel+worksheet+much+more+flexibility.+In+order+to+utilize+Excel+worksheets+to+do+the+work+that+you+desire%2C+it+is+essential+to+recognize+exactly+how+to+use+the+formulas+and+also+data+that+are+had+in+the+layout.+You+will+not+have+problems+if+you+recognize+the+formula.+If+not%2C+after+that+you+might+have+some+trouble+producing+the+formulas+that+you+require.+If+you+require+to+understand+more+concerning+the+sports+betting+excel+template+%2C+then+use+the+web+link+on+this+web+page+to+go+to+the+major+web+page+on+this+internet+site.+This+internet+site+has+information+regarding+how+you+can+get+started+making+use+of+these+worksheets.Whats+is+sports+betting+excel+template.I%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2m+mosting+likely+to+be+composing+this+article+with+an+presumption+that+you%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2re+just+starting+out+making+use+of+Excel+as+well+as+do+not+truly+require+a+lot+of+the+bells+and+also+whistles+%28and+all+the+bugs%29.+If+you%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2re+currently+a+skilled+Excel+user+after+that+the+opportunities+are+that+you%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2re+already+making+use+of+a+selection+of+various+functions+within+Excel%2C+so+this+write-up+will+certainly+likewise+assume+that+you%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2re+currently+making+use+of+a+few+various+attributes+within+Excel.I+highly+advise+that+if+you%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2re+not+making+use+of+Excel+yet%2C+and+that+you%D0%B2%D0%82%E2%84%A2re+interested+in+learning+several+of+the+standard+functions+of+Excel%2C+after+that+I+would+strongly+suggest+you+start+by+downloading+and+install+the+sports+betting+excel+template+and+also+allowing+it+import+the+data+you+desire+from+external+records.+If+you+are+already+making+use+of+Excel%2C+and+also+you+wish+to+stay+on+top+of+new+changes%2C+then+the+next+thing+I+%D0%B2%D0%82%C2%98d+strongly+suggest+is+downloading+the+sports+betting+excel+template+as+well+as+downloading+the+spreadsheet+which+contains+your+workbook.+You+can+after+that+just+import+the+spreadsheet+into+your+workbook+as+well+as+keep+adding+new+records+and+also+formulas+to+it+up+until+your+spread+sheet+has+every+little+thing+that+you+need.Sports+Betting+Excel+Template+%7C+6+Tracking+Spreadsheet+Template+Excel+Excel+Templates.6+Tracking+Spreadsheet+Template+Excel+Excel+Templates+sports+betting+excel+template.Sports+Betting+Excel+Template+%7C+Fully+Auto+Excel+Spreadsheet+Betting+Bot+For+Bet+Angel.Fully+Auto+Excel+Spreadsheet+Betting+Bot+For+Bet+Angel+sports+betting+excel+template.Sports+Betting+Excel+Template+%7C+Bet+Tracker+Excel+Spreadsheet+For+Your+Sports+Betting.Bet+Tracker+Excel+Spreadsheet+For+Your+Sports+Betting+sports+betting+excel+template.Type+of+sports+betting+excel+template.An+Excel+CRM+template+permits+you+to+organize%2C+assess+and+also+manage+client+data+in+an+user+friendly+fashion.+The+basic+feature+of+an+Excel+CRM+design+template+includes+a+custom-made+user+interface+for+hassle-free+as+well+as+very+easy+usage+by+your+organization.+You+can+include+your+very+own+personalized+attributes+to+the+theme%2C+including+charts%2C+charts%2C+photos+and+also+other+things.+An+succeed+CRM+theme+also+aids+you+refine+the+information+as+well+as+organize+for+additional+evaluation.With+an+sports+betting+excel+template%2C+you+can+conveniently+arrange+all+the+client+call+information+of+your+company.+This+enables+your+company+to+have+easy+accessibility+to+this+information+as+well+as+likewise+helps+you+in+accumulating+a+strong+get+in+touch+with+database.+An+sports+betting+excel+template+can+assist+in+making+it+simple+to+store+the+information+from+your+clients+on+your+web+server+or+on+your+hard+disk.+Your+sales+personnel+can+easily+arrange+with+your+client+contact+information+to+get+the+most+suitable+info+from+the+database.+Your+sales+group+will+have+the+ability+to+make+even+more+phone+call+to+your+clients+as+well+as+learn+more+about+them+better.+If+you+want+to+conserve+more+money+and+time%2C+you+can+make+use+of+a+customized+sports+betting+excel+template+as+an+reliable+CRM+device+for+your+firm.Sports+Betting+Excel+Template+%7C+Sports+Betting+Strategy+Spreadsheet+Db+Excel.Sports+Betting+Strategy+Spreadsheet+Db+excel+sports+betting+excel+te&lang=en
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